SVA - THE ASCENDING TRIANGLE BREAKOUT

Two weeks ago, SVA broke out of a 14-month Ascending Triangle, which put a target of 5.83 IN PLAY. Math for the target:

3.83 - High (Use the more conservative of the 3.85 and 3.83 Highs)
1.81 - Low

3.83 - 1.81 = 2.02 Points, added to the breakout above 3.81 = Target: 5.83 IN PLAY.

We had several aberrant trades at Thursday's open, so it's difficult to know exactly what this week's high was. Some services show a high of $9.50. Reuters shows $8.33. Regardless, we came very close to the $5.83 target.

Generally speaking, targets after a 14-month pattern breakout aren't achieved in just two weeks, like this one was in SVA. And, the rally was on very good volume for this stock. That's very bullish.

A period of consolidation here would be healthy for the stock, otherwise, it's in danger of going parabolic, and those usually don't end well. SVA had a parabolic rally in the Autumn of 2005 on the left side of the chart. That rally ended in a blowoff top, at 7.92, then a miserable 77% nine-month decline, to 1.81, ensued, which is typical of parabolics. More often than not, they end in a Parabolic Return to the origin of the parabolic, or have a very sizeable correction at a minimum.

SVA has closed higher for seven weeks in a row, and it's up well over 100% during that period. I expect higher prices for SVA down the road, but again, some consolidation soon would be very healthy for the stock, structurally.

(Click On Chart To Enlarge It For Better Viewing)

NASDAQ 100

On Friday, The Naz 100 almost made it back to the August 8 high of 1995.

Friday's high was 1993.73, and we now have the possibility of a neckline (1995 and 1993.73) for a Bullish Inverse H&S Bottom.

A selloff here (red arrows) to form a Right Shoulder, that doesn't take out the 1912 lows of the Left Shoulder, and then an upside takeout of the neckline would put a target of roughly 2181 IN PLAY.