SILC: Trick...Or Treat?

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From October 31, 2007 (Halloween) entry:

"Bear markets descend on a cushion of hope." At yesterday's close, SILC broke below the BIG Symmetrical Triangle, putting a downside target of 7.54 IN PLAY (the height of the pattern, subtracted from the point of the breakdown)."

I've been reviewing some of my past posts. Chart #1 is from that October 31, 2007 post, when SILC broke down in the $17's. In Chart #2, we can see that the 7.54 downside target MADE earlier this summer, and even beyond that, to 5.29.

Lesson: it pays to take breaks of important support seriously.

XING: 5.50 Resistance

From July 2:

"...this Crash Target of 4.11 from July 17, 2007 get MADE, two weeks shy of the Crash anniversary.

Since the Crash, a total of 19 targets on the upside and the downside also have MADE, so it's been a great trading stock, but most of the targets have been on the downside."

The last two attempts at a bottom (the patterns in black and in green) were failures. The July low for this move down was 3.76, just below the 4.11 Crash Target that was IN PLAY for nearly a year. With that out of the way now, XING currently is attempting to put in an Ascending Triangle/Double Bottom and needs to take out 5.50 to complete it.

When calculating pattern targets for a Double Bottom, I always use the more conservative of two choices, which in this case are the lows of 3.76 and 4.01, so I'd use the 4.01.

5.50 - 4.01 = 1.49 points + 5.50 = 6.99 IN PLAY if XING takes out 5.50 and holds above it. That target would be within three cents of Dutton's $7.02 target.

If it's an Ascending Triangle, 5.50 - 3.76 = 1.74 points + 5.50 = 7.24 IN PLAY.

Both targets are against the dominant trend, which is bearish, so they are less likely to get MADE than they would be if they were in concert with the trend.

On any breakout, near-term Resistance is:

6.69 - 200DMA, which is dropping a penny or two each day
6.26 - 6.78 - April - May Rectangle

VPHM: Ascending Triangle Target

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From June 4, 2008:

"VPHM broke out of its 10-month Ascending Triangle (pattern in green), so in addition to the 11.34 target that still is IN PLAY from the Falling Wedge breakout (pattern in blue) on April 1, that puts 13.26 IN PLAY."

Since that breakout, we had an intervening Bearish Wolfe Wave target that got MADE on July 15, but the Bullish Ascending Triangle target of 13.26 finally got MADE just after the open this morning.