CSUN: Bullsh Falling Wedge

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From December 20:

"CSUN put in a low of 10.02 on Tuesday, at the top of the gap range, finished the session on a Bullish Hammer, then broke out again yesterday, above 11.53-11.57.
That puts 12.59 back IN PLAY"

The Bullish Falling Wedge target of 12.59 MADE this morning.

SVA - Holding Above 3.83-3.85

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In September, SVA had a breakout of a 1-year Ascending Triangle and the 5.83 target got MADE very quickly. "The bigger the base...the better the breakout." The target also was exceeded. Interestingly, Stanley Ng at Dutton, the same analyst who covers XING, began coverage right before the upside breakout, with a target of 5.80, only three cents off the technical target of 5.83. He later raised his target to 7.10 in October. http://www.investars.com/cgi-bin/charts/_nasdaq.exe?f=1&s=SVA&a=662&re=0

EDIT: Ng's target was raised to 7.25, not 7.10.

November 14, SVA broke below a Bear Flag putting a target of 3.96 IN PLAY, right above the 3.83-3.85 top of the Ascending Triangle. "Former resistiance 'should be' support" on a selloff. The 3.96 target was MADE, but the top of the Ascending Triangle wasn't support, nor was the 200DMA (dotted red line) support. SVA fell to a low of 3.32.

Recently, however, SVA has gotten back above 3.83-3.85, and in the weekly chart, it put in a Bullish Engulfing pattern a week ago. If it can stabilize here and if Dutton's and/or Trader.com's targets of 7.10 and 7.50, respectively, get MADE in 2008, that would be a nice gain from Friday's closing price of $4.06. Roughly 75%, or better.

Chart #3 is the Time & Sales sheet at the opening of trading on September 27. There was some funny business going on there. They opened the stock with a few "normal" trades in the $5's, then traded relatively few shares all the way up to 9.50! ... then brought the stock right back to the $5's, where it had been trading the day before. SVA traded in the $5's for the remainder of the session. I was surprised that those trades weren't taken down as aberrations, but they stood up, so the strange candle remains on the chart. Go figger.

XING: Response To Earnings

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After October 26 earnings, four patterns broke to the downside (listed in the upper right hand corner of the chart). The market's RESPONSE to yesterday's release of earnings was:

1. The Bear Flag targets of 7.81 and 7.39 both got MADE.

2. The gap down Crash opening was below 18 months' worth of price support.

3. The validated 5-year up trendline in the monthly chart was broken on an intra-month basis.

There never is any guarantee that targets will get MADE, but XING has tracked well since the bullish W-Bottom upside breakout on September 21. A total of 10 targets on the upside and the downside have gotten MADE (listed in the bottom right hand corner of the chart) in the past three months.

As long as it trades below 8.18 (the up trendline in the monthly chart), XING is bearish in all time-frames. Above 8.18, the monthly chart is neutral.

CSUN: Back Above The Breakout

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From December 18 Comment:

"...I still "think" that the chart looks okay and that CSUN "probably" will fill the 9.55-10.11 gap, then move higher..."

CSUN put in a low of 10.02 on Tuesday, at the top of the gap range, finished the session on a Bullish Hammer, then broke out again yesterday, above 11.53-11.57.

That puts 12.59 back IN PLAY, and 14.78 and 16.66 also are IN PLAY as long as CSUN trades above the 11.53-11.57 breakout.

GS - Reaction To Earnings

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GS reported good earnings. Even GREAT earnings, according to early CNBC comments. Let's look at the REACTION to earnings.

The pattern in purple is a Symmetrical Triangle that was unreliable. GS broke above it, came back inside it, broke out again, broke below it, got back above it, etc. UGH. I do a "redraw" (the pattern in blue) and keep the old pattern, to see if there's any reaction to those trendlines.

The purple trendline came in today at 210.54. This morning's high was 210.53, so there certainly was "some" validity to that trendline. It was resistance on today's "good earnings." GS currently is down over $7.00, in the $201.00s.

CSUN: When In Doubt...Get Out

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There's a world of difference between analyzing stocks, and actually playing them. I'm posting this trade to bring home the fact that it's REAL MONEY that we're playing with, and that we have to manage it as best we can.

At yesterday's gap up opening of 11.95, I had almost a $10,000.00 gain in CSUN. Gaps are difficult to play because we don't know if it's a "Gap To Crap," meaning that's pretty much the high of the day, then the stock swoons, or if it's a "Gap and Go," a gap higher, after which the stock continues higher.

Sometimes, too, stocks gap higher then pullback and fill part or all of the gap, then move higher again. Since yesterday's gap up in CSUN was a breakout of TWO bullish patterns, I didn't play it for a "Gap To Crap," and sell it into the gap opening. It was a "Gap To Crap!"
Even with the Chinese stocks getting slammed, in general, I was willing to hold CSUN when the entire gap got filled, but I wasn't willing to hold it if it didn't recover into the close, and get back above the 11.53-11.57 breakout.

CSUN didn't recover. UGH. While I still "think" that the chart looks okay and that CSUN "probably" will fill the 9.55-10.11 gap, then move higher, what do I KNOW for a fact? I know that the breakout didn't hold on a closing basis. I know that my $10,000.00 paper gain eroded to a paper gain of $3,600.00. I know that if most of that gap gets filled, my paper gain will have evaporated entirely :(

I cashed CSUN in for the $3,600.00 gain. I always can re-enter it, or play something else.

FXP: Inverse H&S Target

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From December 13 entry:

"This morning, in the hourly chart, FXP broke out of a Bullish Inverse H&S neckline, at 73.95-73.99. As long as FXP trades above the neckline, an upside target of 86.16 is IN PLAY. "

The FXP is up 39% in under two weeks, and it's up 16% from its Bullish Inverse H&S breakout a few days ago. It just traded at 86.00. Targets only are estimates of what we're aiming for, and that's certainly close enough to the target to "Take At Least 'Some' Profits When Targets Get Made," especially when it happens this quickly. Very nice!

CSUN: Another Bullish Breakout?

"Next resistance is 11.53-11.57."

Friday's high was 11.57 exactly, so the first Bullish Falling Wedge target got MADE. If CSUN now can take out the highs of 11.53...11.57...11.57, that will be another bullish breakout. It's trading above that level in pre-market, currently at 11.95

XING - Bull Trap/Bear Flag Breakdown

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From December 12 entry:

"We came into this week watching to see if these stocks could reverse back above their breakouts and spring Bear Traps, but we still have the Bull Traps in place in these 3 charts."

On December 13, XING put in a Doji Star Hammer at the bottom rail of the Bear Flag. That was its FOURTH hit to that trendline. Although that test held up into the close, the pattern got broken to the downside in Friday's trading, and on a closing basis. In addition to the Crash target and the three downside targets in the $6s, that puts 7.81 & 7.39 IN PLAY unless/until XING closes back inside the Bear Flag, the bottom of which comes in at 8.487 on Monday, December 17.

CSUN - Another Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout

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From Dec. 6 Blog entry (see chart from that entry):

"The pattern in purple is a Falling Wedge. Breakouts above those generally aren't particularly bullish. As we can see, the "breakout" occurred very near the recent low. Often, those breakouts are nothing more than "breaks above" a severely down sloping trendline, like the one here. But, as we also can see, the breakout of this particular Falling Wedge was a very good one.

Falling Wedges are notorious for morphing, or changing, into Bullish Inverse H&S patterns (blue circles), and we've got just that prospect right here. The neckline is 11.53 and yesterday's 11.57 high."

We got a "morph" into another Bullish Falling Wedge, a "fractal," or repeating pattern of the larger one, and an upside breakout of that pattern this morning. Next resistance is 11.53-11.57. CSUN currently is up 18% today.

FXP - UltraShort China

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The FXP is an Exchange Traded fund that was listed on November 8, 2007:

"The UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index."

This morning, in the hourly chart, FXP broke out of a Bullish Inverse H&S neckline, at 73.95-73.99. As long as FXP trades above the neckline, an upside target of 86.16 is IN PLAY.

FXI, CHL, XING: Bull Traps

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From Sunday's Comments:

"All 3 had bullish breakouts last week, and all 3 closed back below their respective breakouts on Friday, so as the charts stand, they look like "Bull Traps:" anyone who bought the breakouts is under water on the trade, and at least momentarity is "trapped" at higher prices."

We came into this week watching to see if these stocks could reverse back above their breakouts and spring Bear Traps, but we still have the Bull Traps in place in these 3 charts.

"FXI has a gap (see chart) that might get filled, but the 180.00 low of the Right Shoulder shouldn't get taken down. That's a serious technical flaw, if that should occur."

The FXI never got close to getting back above its Bullish Inverse H&S breakout, and the 180.00 low of the Right Shoulder got taken down yesterday, on a closing basis. Yesterday's close was 178.55, so that invalidates the Bullish Inverse H&S breakout (the pattern in green circles), and the 219.99 target is CANCELLED.

The trendlines in blue are a "possible" Ascending Triangle/Symmetrical Triangle forming. For an Ascending Triangle, the highs should be relatively flat. These highs are 199.18 and 197.79, so in this price range, that's "close enough" if anyone wants to call it an Ascending Triangle. We'll see if the FXI can find support here either at the 176.47 gap, at the blue up trendline, or if it can establish some new up trendline, then break out above the top of the pattern. As the chart stands, though, we're looking at an upside breakout on Dec. 5, that failed (Bull Trap).

CHL had a "Gap To Crap" opening yesterday, back above its 93.17 "W"-Bottom breakout and it got to an early morning high of 93.50, a few pennies above the 93.47 Nov. 14/Nov. 30 trendline, but it tanked from there and broke 89.35, the "last low" prior to the "W"-Bottom breakout. However, CHL closed at 89.40, so that could be good enough for the stock to make another attempt right here to get back above 93.17.

XING put in a second Bearish Engulfing pattern at the top of the Bear Flag yesterday. It's near the bottom rail of that pattern again, which comes in today, December 12, at 8.373.

EFUT - Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

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In the daily chart, EFUT had a Bullish Falling Wedge breakout on November 29, at 15.76. In the 10-minute chart, EFUT just broke out of this well-defined Symmetical Triangle. Each trendline had three "hits" to it.

FXI, CHL, XING: Bull or Bear Trap?

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All 3 had bullish breakouts last week, and all 3 closed back below their respective breakouts on Friday, so as the charts stand, they look like "Bull Traps:" anyone who bought the breakouts is under water on the trade, and at least momentarity is "trapped" at higher prices.

Anyone who shorted the breakouts has a gain. However, all 3 of these charts have a very decent chance of reversing higher next week, back above their breakouts, in which case Friday's bearish closes in all 3 stocks will end up being "Bear Traps."

I say that because the technicals look very decent here. See the FXI chart of the sequential Fibonacci measures of relative strength, and comment on the MACD. The RSIs and MACD in CHL and XING look similar to FXI's, although XING's MACD still is well below zero.

The 50DMA in CHL is 89.956 and the "last low" in CHL, just prior to the "W"-Bottom breakout, was 89.35. I shouldn't like to see that low get taken out to the downside.

FXI has a gap (see chart) that might get filled, but the 80.00 low of the Right Shoulder "shouldn't" get taken down. That's a serious technical flaw, if that should occur.

The charts of FXI and CHL are much more bullish than that of XING, which is short and intermediate-term bearish, but XING could benefit if the former two can get back above their respective breakout levels next week.

XING: 9.91 And 10.05 IN PLAY

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On Wednesday, XING broke above the top of the Bear Flag, putting 9.91 IN PLAY (the neckline of the H&S Top), and 10.05 IN PLAY (Bear Flag measured move). Yesterday is the first time that XING has had an upside target IN PLAY on a closing basis for quite awhile.

The downside targets listed in the upper right corner also are IN PLAY. One of them is ON HOLD because XING has closed above the 8.82 Head of the failed Bullish Inverse H&S (pattern in green).

The upside targets are against the bearish trend, so they are less like to get MADE than they would be if the short and intermediate-term trends were bullish. Absent good news on the fundamentals, XING has to rally into resistance, i.e., longs trapped in the Bearish H&S Top, many of whom are willing sellers on any rally to that level.

CSUN: Possible Right Shoulder

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The pattern in purple is a Falling Wedge. Breakouts above those generally aren't particularly bullish. As we can see, the "breakout" occurred very near the recent low. Often, those breakouts are nothing more than "breaks above" a severely down sloping trendline, like the one here. But, as we also can see, the breakout of this particular Falling Wedge was a very good one.

Falling Wedges are notorious for morphing, or changing, into Bullish Inverse H&S patterns (blue circles), and we've got just that prospect right here. The neckline is 11.53 and yesterday's 11.57 high.

Theoretically, the low of this "possible" Right Shoulder shouldn't go below the low of the Left Shoulder, which was 8.56, because selling interest should dry up in a Right Shoulder. We'd also like to see less volume on this selloff, further indicating less interest in selling.

On a long entry, many players will use a print below 8.56 as the stop. 8.55...8.54...or, even 8.49, below the "round" 8.50. We really wouldn't want to see this "possible" Right Shoulder go lower than the 8.56 Left Shoulder low, though. That's a technical flaw, although I've seen a few of them work out okay, especially if the neckline has a downward slope. This neckline doesn't have a downward slope, so again, we'd want to see a Right Shoulder low above 8.56 if that is, in fact, what we've got forming.

A 50% retracement of the recent rally is 8.985. The Kijun-sen (solid red line) in the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart ("At a glance...the Table of Balance") comes in today, December 6, exactly at 8.985, so something near there (low 9.00s) looks to be a good entry long. The risk on a stop out would be roughly 5%. The Tenken-sen (solid green line) comes in today at 9.12, so an entry long there would be a risk of a little over 6% on a stop out.

If CSUN can complete a Right Shoulder and breakout above the 11.53-11.57 neckline, that would put an upside target of 16.66 IN PLAY, for a gain of 85% from an entry of 9.00 if the target gets MADE. Risk:reward would be 1:16. The IPO high was very near the target, at 16.70. The October 10 high of 14.78 also would be an upside target and a good area to take at least some profits if that gets MADE.

Math for the 16.66 Bullish Inverse H&S target:

11.53 - Neckline (the more conservative of the 11.53 and 11.57 data points)

6.40 - Low of The Head

11.53 - 6.40 = 5.13 points added back to 11.53 = Target: 16.66 IN PLAY

USNA - Descending Triangle

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Descending Triangles typically are bearish, but this one is the Right Shoulder of a "possible" Bullish Inverse H&S, so it could surprise to the upside. The flat bottom of the Descending Triangle, just below 39.00, is important support.

QXM: Struggle At Resistance

( To Enlarge Chart, Click on it, then click on Open when prompted. At the bottom of the chart, click on the fourth icon from the left, then enlarge your screen).

QXM rallied to first resistance late last week, and failed. It needs to get above the down-sloping trendline and above 8.58 (last support) to turn neutral.

XING: Down And Dirty December

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The good news is that, although XING violated the up trendline in the monthly chart during November, it hung on for a monthly close above it, so the long-term uptrend remains in tact (see monthly chart in last weekend's post below). The slope of the up trendline rises $0.12 per month, so we move the chains for December, and that trendline comes in this month at $8.18.

The bad news is that, although there's a "possible" Double Bottom in place (7.65 - 7.81 lows) seen in the first chart, since late October XING has broken below three patterns listed in the upper right corner of the second chart, all of which have downside targets in the $6s IN PLAY.

Coming off the recent 7.81 low, XING has put in a weak Bear Flag rally (pattern in purple in the second chart), back to the bottom rung of resistance, at 8.82. The was The Head of the "possible" Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern (green circles) that failed, and it's now resistance. Last week's Bear Flag rally got only to 8.74 and on Friday, XING finished out the week with a failure at the top of the Bear Flag on a Bearish Inverted Hangman. The top of the Bear Flag comes in on Monday, December 3, at 8.82 exactly. Very short-term, that's the number to beat for XING to turn from bearish to neutral.

Above 8.82, there isn't a lot of resistance, so if XING can take out the Bear Flag to the upside, that would suggest a rally to the down sloping neckline which currently is in the low $9.90s, and possibly higher from there if XING can capitalize on the November closing basis hold of the monthly up trendline, and stop acting short-to-intermediate-term bearish here.