(Click On Charts To Enlarge)
In September, SVA had a breakout of a 1-year Ascending Triangle and the 5.83 target got MADE very quickly. "The bigger the base...the better the breakout." The target also was exceeded. Interestingly, Stanley Ng at Dutton, the same analyst who covers XING, began coverage right before the upside breakout, with a target of 5.80, only three cents off the technical target of 5.83. He later raised his target to 7.10 in October. http://www.investars.com/cgi-bin/charts/_nasdaq.exe?f=1&s=SVA&a=662&re=0
EDIT: Ng's target was raised to 7.25, not 7.10.
November 14, SVA broke below a Bear Flag putting a target of 3.96 IN PLAY, right above the 3.83-3.85 top of the Ascending Triangle. "Former resistiance 'should be' support" on a selloff. The 3.96 target was MADE, but the top of the Ascending Triangle wasn't support, nor was the 200DMA (dotted red line) support. SVA fell to a low of 3.32.
Recently, however, SVA has gotten back above 3.83-3.85, and in the weekly chart, it put in a Bullish Engulfing pattern a week ago. If it can stabilize here and if Dutton's and/or Trader.com's targets of 7.10 and 7.50, respectively, get MADE in 2008, that would be a nice gain from Friday's closing price of $4.06. Roughly 75%, or better.
Chart #3 is the Time & Sales sheet at the opening of trading on September 27. There was some funny business going on there. They opened the stock with a few "normal" trades in the $5's, then traded relatively few shares all the way up to 9.50! ... then brought the stock right back to the $5's, where it had been trading the day before. SVA traded in the $5's for the remainder of the session. I was surprised that those trades weren't taken down as aberrations, but they stood up, so the strange candle remains on the chart. Go figger.
2 comments:
Hi Melf,
I love the breakout of SVA today. It's just too bad that it was a short trading day or else we would have easily hit $7. This is one of my two favorite stocks (the other being the infamous ASTM). I think that in 2008, SVA can break out of the previous high about $7 and hit the $10 mark. What do you think?
BTW.....still holding ASTM. Just too much potential there IMO.
(I love the breakout of SVA today.)
Hey, Thai!
I would have loved it even better if had gotten long on Friday. I had just finished my blog entry yesterday at about the time that the news came out, and SVA was gone on the upside in pre-market. I put in a limit order at 4.18 above Friday's 4.16 high, but they only brought it back to 4.20, leaving both the gap AND my order unfilled. Curses! LOL.
(I think that in 2008, SVA can break out of the previous high about $7 and hit the $10 mark. What do you think?)
I don't have any patterns to measure a target. My plan was to use slightly below last week's 3.72low, and the 200DMA at 3.70, as my stop for about an 8% risk, then sell half in the low $5s for about a 24% gain. Risk:reward - 1:3. Let the other half ride.
Yesterday's rally was on very decent volume. There's resistance in the October-November Bear Flag on the chart, from $5.20 - $6.98. If SVA can get through there, it could have a real nice run in 2008.
Merry Christmas, Thai, and good luck in 2008!
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