Sunday, June 15, 2008

NASDAQ, SPX, UYG











(Click On Charts To Enlarge)

Chart #1: NASDAQ:

The NASDAQ closed back above broken 2429...2430...2429 support, so that puts the downside target of 2310 ON HOLD and puts the short-term trend Neutral. As we discussed on Friday, the Intermediate Term trend has remained bullish (the two Bullish Inverse H&S patterns in blue, and in purple).

Resistance above here is:

1. 2460-2466 - That's the broken channel low, at Green #4, and the last rally high before 2429-2430 support broke, respectively.

2. 2505 (roughly) - That's where the bottom of the broken channel comes in on Monday, June 16

3. 2510 (roughly) - That's the 200DMA, and that's also where the bottom of the broken channel will come in on Tuesday, June 17, so it will be DOUBLE RESISTANCE.

Chart #2: SPX

When the Bearish Rising Wedge (purple) rally off the March 17 low broke to the downside on May 21, that put 1339.31 IN PLAY (50% retracement of the rally), and the break of of the Bull Flag (green) that WASN'T bullish put 1332.05 IN PLAY. Both of those targets MADE late last week.

Bearish Rising Wedges frequently "morph," or change, into a Bearish H&S Top. If that's the case here, the relatively horizontal black line is the neckline, and we're now going to have a counter trend rally to put in a Right Shoulder, and then later break down below that black neckline.

That scenario is an example of what analysts' mean when they say, "Let's watch the quality of the next rally." If we get a rally that is on low volume, that fails in the flag (pattern in green), or say, fails at the 50DMA (which has rolled over to the downside and now is at roughly 1353), then the neckline gets taken out to the downside, we'll likely test the March lows.

Chart #3: UYG

The weakest of the three charts. It came close to testing its March low; the other two are well above theirs.

After The Three Bears showed up (the three bearish patterns and breakdowns on the chart), UYG sold off 25%+ just from the point of the breakdown alone, at 32.66 on May 16. That's a huge decline in just one month's time, so at least a snapback rally is certainly reasonable. Possibly more than that.

In the intraday chart, we got an Ascending Triangle breakout on Friday that put 27.56 IN PLAY, which would be just below the last low of 27.76, prior to this last leg down, so there isn't much resistance between here and the target.

Next resistance is 28.47-28.48, the April 15 low and the May 28 low, respectively, the latter of which failed to hold after a poor attempt at a rally.

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