Tuesday, November 18, 2008

UYG And VPHM










(Click On Charts To Enlarge)

From Sunday re UYG:

"Intraday trading is going to be problematic... I'm not going to know what the close will be, so I'll have to play by ear. If I see prints of 6.42...6.41...6.40...6.39. I'll be thinking, "YUK!"...

... No, I won't hold it down to 6.16. I'm going to stop it out in the high 6.30's just below the .618 retracement of 6.419. If I get shaken out, that's fine. I always can re-enter at a higher price if this thing really is bullish and gives some convincing evidence of that."
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Chart #1 - UYG: I think I jinxed myself writing that on Sunday ;) Since the selloff began right out of the gate, I gave the trade a little more room on the downside, trying to avoid getting shaken out if it reversed higher, but when the UYG moved down to new lows after the initial selloff, I threw it in at 6.32 since the .618 retracement at 6.42 clearly had not held. The .764 retracement of 6.16 didn't hold either. The UYG printed a low of 5.97 and closed at 6.05. I'm definitely changing this symbol to UGH! LOL.

While this "could" be a double Wave 5 fakeout to the downside and the UYG "could" get back inside the Wolfe Wave (currently above 6.473) and head toward the top of the pattern, it's bearish at the moment with yesterday's CLOSE below the Wolfe Wave, so it also "could" go lower. I'll continue to watch it, but I don't want to be long a situation like this, below pattern support.

Chart #2 - VPHM: I shorted this one per my plan yesterday morning. Intraday, VPHM got back above the broken Rising Wedge once again and made another bid to fill the 12.57 gap (I forgot to change the 12.59 on the chart. It's 12.57). It failed at 12.30 and closed at 11.70, back below the pattern again.

Chart #3 - Trades: I sold the UYG at 6.32, for a 3.1% loss from my 6.52 entry. Shorted VPHM at 11.97.

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