The NAZ rally has continued for ten days in row, during which time the April 2 Bullish Inverse H&S and the Double Bottom breakout targets of 1523.57 and 1531.75 both got MADE.
Off its July 15 Symmetrical Triangle breakout, AAPL rallied to within two dollars of the 157.25 target IN PLAY on Monday before selling off into that close, and then closing down yesterday ahead of the release of earnings after the bell.
After the performance that AAPL has put in since JPMorgan downgraded it at the March 6 low in the stock, and after the ten day rally in the NAZ and NASDAQ, it wouldn't be much of a surprise if the stock sold off on the release of earnings, no matter how good they were, on a "sell the news," but...
...the Symmetrical Triangle target of 157.25 got MADE in after-hours.
The only BAD news here is that Cramer just upgraded it to $200.
Just kidding. Ju-u-u-u-u-ust kidding.
2 comments:
Melf,
You rarely discuss trading in longer term time horizons, had you played the NAZ breakouts which vehicles would you have used and would it have been a straight hold until target? Thanks
Good Morning, Mark,
I'm more of a trader, but yes, it would have been a straight hold for longer-term players, who could use the QQQQ or the QID, if they want more leverage (more risk with the latter, too).
When the Bullish Inverse H&S Bottom/Double Bottom broke out on April 2, I would use a stop below the March 30 low of the Right Shoulder, 1204.96.
When the Symmetrical Triangle (in green) broke out and went above the high of the pattern, at Green #1, I'd move the stop up to below the low of the pattern, at Green #2, which was 1339.82. Barring some kind of horrible gap down below that after the breakout, that locks in a winning trade.
The target for that Symmetrical Triangle pattern was 1512.78. The high after the breakout was 1511.94, within a point of the target. Personally, I'd have to take profits there, or at least some profits. Less than one point is awfully close to the target, especially after a rally of 450 points! Technically, though, there wasn't a sell signal.
When the Bull Flag/Falling Channel (pattern in blue) broke out and went above the June 11 high of 1511.94, I'd raise the stop again, to below the low of the pattern, at Blue #4, which was 1394.87. That now would lock in a gain of over 100 points for anyone who bought the breakout above the Triple Top in the 1280's, or who bought prior to that breakout, and who wants to continue to hold their long position.
In other words, we wouldn't want to turn this terrific rally into a loss. Either "sell into strength," especially when targets get MADE, or at least have a stop loss to protect some profits.
Post a Comment