Friday, October 23, 2009

AMZN: The Short Squeeze



From September 30 on AMZN:

"The problem that The Bears have in AMZN is that yesterday's rally was the third move above the top of the pattern, and it also was the third CLOSE above the top of the pattern. The Bears are vulnerable to a squeeze here, especially if AMZN goes pounding through the 94.40-94.50 highs. They need to knock this back inside the channel."

From October 9:

"The Bears have a problem here with the CLOSE above 94.40-94.50 resistance and the top of the channel."

Oh, my! Huge problem for the AMZN Bears at today's open, but we could see that potential during the past few weeks ago when:

1. The Bearish Island Reversal high of 94.40 got taken out to the upside
2. The putatative Bearish Wolfe Wave wasn't bearish
3. The 94.40-94.50 "possible" Double Top got taken out to the upside

The AMZN November 95 Calls (.QZNKS) currently are up 389% on the day. Whew! I'm not fond of playing earnings or options, but that play certainly seems justifiable given the evidence.

7 comments:

- said...

thanks for the update melf...

luckily, i had exited all amzn shorts prior to earnings, but am starting to re-enter at these nosebleed levels...

the fact that this dotcom mania darling is back to its dotcom levels is very inviting,
and it's hard to look favorably on a company who's earnings are bested by insider sales...

mark said...

Melf,
Glad to see you back.

Melf Elf said...

Thanks, Mark!

------------
Kevin,

Glad that you got out. Shorting AMZN was one of those problem trades that are best thrown in. Good luck with your position!

Alex said...

Hi Melf

Hope all is well and you are enjoying a well deserved holiday.

Regards

Alex

danny42nd said...

Hello melf
how r u?
Is everything ok?
I don't see the update for while,
best wishes to you in holiday season.
see you soon
danny

- said...

happy holidays, melf

hope you're doin ok

pimaCanyon said...

Hi Melf,

Hope all is well in your world.

We miss you!

Greg