From March 25:
"Not getting my order filled on the 5,000 shares became even more disappointing when I saw that ARIA closed at 6.91, which would have been a $2,400 gain from my entry at 6.43. It's frustrating to do our homework and not get paid for it, but we won't let our emotions get hold of us, will we? Curses!!! LOL."
Getting over a disappointment like that one has been difficult for me as a trader because I work so hard, and I know that I earned the trading profits that I didn't get. It's very important to get over the disappointment as quickly as possible, though, because the negative energy really affects our attitudes and can cloud our thinking. "Getting over it," however, doesn't mean that have to forget the stock and all of the work that we've done. We can continue to watch it and take advantage of any opportunity that presents itself.
On Friday, March 25, ARIA put in a Gravestone Doji, which "usually" signifies at least a short-term reversal. Intraday, the stock ran up toward the 7.32 high, but fizzled into the close. You probably could hear the air come out of it. "Pff-fft!"
On Monday, March 28, I was looking for a black candlestick that CLOSED at least 50% below the close of the big white candle of Thursday, March 24. That would complete a 3-Day Bearish Evening Star pattern, which is one of the most bearish reversal patterns in the candlesticks, if not THE most bearish. This is what I got...
Huh? ARIA went back up to Friday's 7.30 high??? That isn't at all what I expected, but we know always to "expect the unexpected" from Ms. Market. That print of 7.30 again in Monday's trading meant that ARIA wasn't "giving up the ghost" on that Gravestone Doji, and how many other players weren't expecting that, because it was unusual? Hmmm-mm....
I certainly didn't expect to be thinking about BUYING at these levels, after the recent run-up, but what would be "likely" to happen if ARIA took out the 7.30 highs of Friday and Monday, AND took at the 7.32 high, as well? Hmmm-mm...
For one thing, we know that The Bears who shorted that Gravestone Doji, or anywhere below that, would be in a pickle on a move to new highs, so they would have to BUY TO COVER if ARIA broke out, and for another thing, we know that a lot of players love to BUY breakouts. Hmmm-mm....
Sounds like Ye Olde "Buying begets Buying" might come into play.
When ARIA was champing at the bit for a breakout, at BID: 7.28...ASK 7.29 yesterday morning, I had to laugh at myself as I was furiously filling out my order form, knowing that I was about to buy a stock that I thought I'd be shorting. Ms. Market sure can make us feel foolish.
I wasn't about to go in again with a limit order on 5,000 shares because those buzzard faces probably wouldn't fill me again. Instead, I went in with only 2,500 shares AT THE MARKET. I figured that they wouldn't allow me to have it for the 7.29 ASK, either, which was fine with me in this particular case, because if my order pushed ARIA higher, all the better. They filled me at 7.30, then ARIA broke out at 7.31 in a matter of seconds.
The 7.31 breakout put an upside target of 7.65 IN PLAY, derived by subtracting the 6.95 low of the Ascending Triangle from the 7.30 highs (0.35 points of upside), then adding that 0.35 points of upside to the 7.30 breakout.
ARIA came back below that breakout and traded there for awhile, but I wasn't about to give up my position unless they could knock out my stop, which was below White #4 in the Ascending Triangle. ARIA came on again in the late afternoon, printed new highs on the session in the homestretch, and simply ran out of time at the wire. 50% of the 7.65 target had gotten MADE and I was content with that, so I cashed it in and thanked Ms. Market for "a good dinner" money (I've upgraded from having to accept "lunch money" in my ARIA trades).
Gain: $425. It isn't the $2,400 that I deserved last week, so ARIA still owes me $1,975. LOL.
Kidding aside, this isn't much of a profit, but it's such a great example of what I mean when I say, "Don't try to predict the market...FOLLOW what Ms. Market is telling you, as best you can." There's no question that I would have "predicted" that the Gravestone Doji would have resulted in pretty good move to the downside early this week, and I would have been completely wrong.
>>>>>> Enter The Munchkins, singing "FOLLOW....FOLLOW....FOLLOW...."
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