Tuesday, April 5, 2011

FCX: Nested Bullish Falling Wedge



Since the St. Paddy's Day breakout of the Bullish Falling Wedge in the daily chart, the FCX Bulls have been executing beautifully.

After the upside takeout of the H&S Top (pattern in red), FCX formed and broke out of a Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in orange), then formed and broke out of a Nested Bullish Falling Wedge, best seen in the 10-Minute chart below.




The Bulls gapped FCX out of the Symmetrical Triangle right out of the gate on Monday morning and reached 56.40, at Red #1, before pulling back. A move like that is exciting for the longs, but given the Winter Overhang of resistance in FCX that we've been discussing, a move like that quite often is a "Gap And Crap," and the stock gets called back to at least partially fill the gap, or to fill it entirely.

FCX spent the remainder of the session trying to put in an Ascending Triangle (the pattern in green), from which to break out at this morning's open. As we've seen SO many times, patterns often "morph," or change, into something else, as this Ascending Triangle did.

Since FCX was called lower at this morning's open, below Green uptrend line #1-#3, the Bulls thought better of their plan and went all the way back to 54.11, which not only was an EXACT fill of Monday morning's gap, it also established Data Point #4 for a Nested Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout. The Bullish Falling Wedge is in red, with the green Ascending Triangle "nested" within it. As we know, mulitiple patterns and nested patterns frequently augur nice moves when they break out, as we witnessed today when FCX banged of gap support, broke out, and ran.

Rarely will I award a team perfect scores for execution, but for their performance since the St. Paddy's Day Bullish Falling Wedge Breakout, The Bulls' scores for technical merit thus far in the rally are:

10...10...10...10...10...10....11*

(* Judge #7 greatly admired the morph to the Bullish Falling Wedge, and was especially fond of the EXACT gap fill of 46.11. LOL).



Bought these shares on Monday, April 4, and sold them into today's rally a little above the Bullish Falling Wedge breakout target.



Gain: $1,700.
Gain on the ten closed trades since March 23: $9,250.

Open position: 500 shares, purchased March 30.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Melf, what is a good entry point for FCX ? thanks

Melf Elf said...

Emmanuel,

In my opinion, the best place to buy (or short) ANY stock is:

(1) a technical breakout (or breakdown) of a pattern, be it on an intraday, daily or weekly chart, or somewhere reasonably close to that.

(2) at a retest of the breakout or breakdown.

(3) at a validation of trendline support or resistance, which I talk about so much it probably bores everyone to death. LOL.

At any of those points, there generally is more to be gained than there is to be lost if the trade fails.

Good luck to you!