FCX: Ascending Triangle

(Click on charts to enlarge. Click on them again for further enlargement. Use left arrow on your browser to return to narrative).

Very short-term, FCX finished Friday's session trading in this channel, the bottom of which was validated as support at the up arrow, the top of which was twice validated as resistance at the down arrows near the end of the session.

This channel pattern appears in the next chart, in red. Note that Data Point #3 in this chart also is Data Point #4 of a possible Ascending Triangle in the next chart.




Friday's early morning "screamer" to the 51.76 high of the broken Rectangle (pattern in yellow) resulted in a "Gap and Crap" which, far more often than not, is what occurs when a stock stampedes directly in resistance. The entire rally to the early session high of 51.77 got taken down and the gap from Thursday's close got filled. Back to the drawing board...

Structurally, The Bulls have a better chance for a rally here than they did at Thursday's close, when FCX was sitting below twice validated resistance of the broken Rectangle (the pattern in yellow). Although The Bears twice validated resistance at the top of the channel (first chart) late in Friday's session, it wasn't resistance at the bottom of a broken pattern, like Thursday's Rectangle (pattern in yellow).

If The Bulls can take out the top of the Channel (first chart), that's constructively bullish. Next order of business would be to knock out the 51.76 - 51.77 highs of this putative Ascending Triangle (pattern in white). That's getting ahead of ourselves, but if The Bulls can do that, it would put an upside target of 54.11 IN PLAY.

Math for the Ascending Triangle:

51.76 - The more conservative of the 51.76 and 51.77 highs
49.41 - Low of the Ascending Triangle

51.76 - 49.41 = 2.35 points of upside on a breakout

51.76 + 2.35 = Target: 54.11 IN PLAY



The top of the Kumo is at 54.02, very near the 54.11 target that would be IN PLAY should The Bulls pull off an Ascending Triangle breakout. Targets that are against the trend are less likely to get MADE, and the trend is bearish. The bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) comes in today, May 9, at 52.21, so 52.21 - 54.02 is Kumo resistance.

If Friday's low gets taken down (White #4 with the question mark in the second chart), or if White Trendline #2-#4 in the second chart gets violated by more than a tad, this Ascending Triangle possibility, as it stands, is scrapped.