Tuesday, September 27, 2011

GOOG And AMZN: Triangle Breakouts



From yesterday:

"Any rally below, and up to, the 534.51 low of all of that resistance is a "gimme." Above it is Bull/Bear Combat Zone."

Rather than making an immediate bid for the "combat zone," GOOG had a Gap And Crap opening (the top of this Symmetrical Triangle, in yellow), went down and busted the stops below support in the 514's, then rallied.

Late afternoon, after the Symmetrical Triangle broke out to the upside, GOOG pulled back for a retest of the top of the pattern, which was at about 523.40. That looked like a real nice entry long the stock, but I preferred AMZN, which had a similar breakout of a Symmetrical Triangle and also was pulling back for a retest.



AMZN exhibited better relative strength during the morning Smackdown off the Gap And Crap openings. It not only didn't break to a new low, as GOOG did, it didn't challenge its recent low at all.

On the pullback to the top of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in yellow) after its upside breakout, the EMAs also were right there and were properly threaded with the 13 above the 21, and the 21 above the 34. Lovely. I bought 2,000 shares of it at 225.50 (yellow up arrow) with a mental stop below 224.32, the minor low just prior to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.

AMZN put in a Symmetrical Triangle retest low at 225.43, then rallied, so I was glad that I didn't put in my order any lower than 225.50. Whew! I've been getting pipped at the post on some nice trades, by just a penny or three.



After the breakout above horizontal resistance at 227.95 (the yellow line), AMZN looked good to go for a short-squeezing late day rally to the Gap And Crap morning high of 229.79. With only about fifteen minutes remaining before the final gong, though, I decided to cash it in near $529 and sold just below that, at 528.95.



In the final few minutes, AMZN continued to rally and squeeze the shorts, putting in a new session high at 530.24, and closing at 530.00.

Market lesson: "Don't stay short an upside technical breakout AND a successful retest of that breakout."



GOOG rallied nearly $20 off its morning stop-busting low of 513.25 and also scored a new session high of 532.93 late in the session, just below the bottom rung of the stacked resistance that we discussed yesterday morning.



At the close, GOOG is parked "right there," below stacked resistance. The slope of the trendline at the bottom of the broken Channel is 1.78546, so we add that amount to yesterday's data point and it comes in today, September 27, at 537.28.

Despite yesterday's rally, it's still Advantage: The Bears since GOOG still is below the Channel breakdown. Anything above the bottom trendline, at 537.28 for today, is "Ye Olde Knuckle-biter" for The Bears because the stock would be back inside the broken pattern and The Bears "shouldn't" allow that, other than for an intraday gap fill, but then they would need to smack it outta there. The Bulls, obviously, want more than just a gap fill ;)



Gain: $6,900

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