Friday, October 7, 2011

GOOG: Rally To Neckline Resistance



From the past two days on GOOG:

"Key Resistance overhead is roughly 509-515."

And, boy was it ever in yesterday's session!

I liked GOOG's chances for a rally into that resistance for a broken neckline retest, at 514.821, after the "Gap And Crap" opening above 507.77-507.80 horizontal resistance (horizontal red line).

On October 5 before the opening gong, Stifel Nicolaus downgraded GOOG, the market response to which was to send the stock back for a retest of 480, unwinding the prior afternoon's late day short squeezing Screamer to the upside. Rather than tank on the downgrade, GOOG double bottomed at 480 (the two white circles), then took out the 503.44 pivot high of Wednesday's upside Screamer. I liked that, and I liked the upside takeout of the 507.77-507.80 horizontal resistance.

I also liked the fact that on the pullback from yesterday morning's Gap and Crap opening, the EMAs just below it were properly threaded with the fastest 13 above the 21, and the faster 21 above the 34. I bought 500 shares of GOOG at 504.75 on the pullback.



After the pullback, The Bulls took GOOG higher and knocked out the Gap and Crap high, formed this Falling Wedge, then broke out of it. Lovely. I moved my mental stop up to 508.00, the low of that pattern (horizontal red line), locking in a winning trade.



The Bulls then formed a Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in white) with the Falling Wedge (in yellow) nested within it, then broke out again on a strong rally to 514.03. It looked like the neckline retest (daily chart) at 514.821 was a slam dunk.

The only thing that got slammed and dunked was Melf Elf! I wanted to give The Bulls a lot of leeway to get to the target since I was locked into a winner with my 508.00 stop, so I did NOT sell the breakdown below the Symmetrical Triangle near its apex (white arrow), and I did NOT sell the failed attempt at a Double Bottom (orange circle). I held until my 508.00 stop obviously was going to get busted and threw it in at 508.06, after having had a paper gain of about $4,600 when GOOG was at 514.03.

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!!!

I decided never to have truck with those wimpy GOOG Bulls again, until...



...I saw that they were forming a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern! Okay, I forgave them and bought back my 500 shares at 509.36.





The Bulls not only broke out of the Inverse H&S, they formed and broke out of a little Bull Flag (pattern in yellow), and successfully retested the top of it (yellow arrow)! How nice is tha-a-at?

I put my mental stop at 510.44 (red arrow), the low of the Bull Flag, locking in a winning trade, and got ready for LIFT OFF for the 414.89 neckline retest. Oh, boy!



WHAT?????????????????

The GOOG Bulls have to be joking. Those bums let The Bears bust my stop? Okay, I sold my shares at 510.37 and resolved never EVER to back the GOOG Bulls again.

Unless...



...I saw them take out the high of a Right Shoulder (horizontal yellow line) of a putitive Head & Shoulders Top that The Bears were trying to put in ;)

After being yanked around TWICE, though, I wasn't about to go in again with 500 shares. I bought 200 shares at 510.75. Stop below the neckline.



Oh-h, buddy!

The Bulls morphed The Bears' putative H&S Top into an Ascending Triangle (in yellow) with a little Falling Wedge (in orange) nested within it, then broke out of it to the upside. If The Bulls could hold up and not get weak-kneed like they did on the earlier breakouts, The Bears were very badly positioned short the breakout and were very vulnerable to a late day short squeeze.



After the Ascending Triangle breakout, there was a pullback for a retest of the top of the little Falling Wedge (first yellow arrow), another breakout, a pullback for a successful retest of the top of the Ascending Triangle, then...

...LIFT OFF!!!

I intended to sell near the 514.821 neckline, but The Bears were so panicked to cover their shorts and GOOG pounded higher so fast, I hung about momentarily and got an excellent fill at 515.02-515.10.

If you've read this far, you see what I meant about Key Resistance: 509-515. There was some serious head-banging, getting to the top of that resistance. Whew!



The session finished at 514.71, with The Bulls parked eleven cents below neckline resistance.



Gain on the session: $3,000

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