Wednesday, January 25, 2012
AKS: Earnings; BIDU: Break Below 123.50
The market's initial response to AKS's earnings was a panicky selloff of nearly 5% in the first few minutes of trading, back below the upside technical breakouts in the daily chart (below), but that didn't last long. The stock climbed off the lows and closed back above the breakouts and near the high of the session.
Unless the market changes its mind and sends AKS back below the breakouts on a closing basis, AKS has survived the release of earnings.
The early selloff accomplished two things: (1) it filled most of the gap left in the chart from January 9, and (2) it estabished White Data #4 for yet another possible bullish pattern, a Bull Flag (the pattern in white), which is the pattern in purple in the next chart.
As the daily chart stands, the upside targets still are IN PLAY as long as the stock continues to CLOSE above the breakouts.
From yesterday, on BIDU:
"The yellow line, by the way, is the Right Shoulder of the Inverse H&S pattern in the last chart. That 123.50 low "shouldn't" get taken down. The late session low was 123.50 exactly."
The BIDU Bulls have been as sloppy as this chart looks, and it has cost them.
When the low of a Right Shoulder of a Bullish Inverse H&S gets taken down (that's the top horizontal red line), that's a second "shot across the bow" from The Bears because, as i said yesterday, that "shouldn't" happen (the first shot across the bow was The Bears taking the stock back below the neckline).
The takeout of the Right Shoulder low suggests a test of next support, which was the lows of the Symmetical Triangle, in green (the middle horizontal red line), and if that breaks, a test of the low of The Head (the bottom red line). The Bears scored on all three of those support levels, taking them all out to the downside. UGH.
When there's absolutely nothing bullish to recommend a chart, I like to try to remain objective and to look for something that is bullish. What "could be" bullish in this chart, potentially, is that the takeout of the Inverse H&S pattern is a "Fakeout/Breakdown," and that The Bulls will reverse it and race back to that critical breakdown at 123.50, which coincidentally also is where the top of the Falling Wedge came in yesterday.
I wanted some evidence, though, that The Bulls at least had a chance.
Well-ll, the stock didn't tank after the takeout of The Head, and The Bulls broke out of this little Bull Flag. Hmmm-mm...
There was plenty of time still on the clock. The Bulls had a chance here if they could successfully defend the top of this Bull Flag on a pullback, then start climbing back to the 123.50 breakdown. I bought 2,000 BIDU at 122.03 on the pullback. The Bulls either had game, or they didn't, and I'd soon find out.
Curses! Curses! CURSES!!! Weak-kneed, lily-livered Bulls! LOL.
The Bull Flag breakout was an obvious failure, so I threw it in on the little bounce back to the top of the flag (white arrow), in the 121.50's.
That's a shame. The session high was 123.40, below the 123.50 low of the Right Shoulder in the intraday chart, and right at the 123.389 top of the Channel in this daily chart. UGH. The Bulls have dug themselves a bit of a hole and need to get back above there.
Loss: $1,000
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