The NAZ 100 and QQQQ

(Click On Chart To Enlarge)

From April 18:

"Chart #2: The NAZ 100 already has broken out of a Bullish Falling Wedge with a nested Symmetrical Triangle (green), which put 1954.99 IN PLAY, very near a 50% Retracement of the decline from last autumn."

The Nasdaq 100 was at 1840.88 when we last looked at it. From there, it rallied 100+ points to a high of 1942.98 this week, 12 points shy and within less than 1% of the target IN PLAY. This rally is looking like a Bear Flag..."higher highs and higher lows" AT RESISTANCE at the 200 DMA, and at the confluence of the 50% Fibonnaci Retracement and the Bullish Falling Wedge target:

1962,16 - is the top of the "possible" Bear Flag for Monday, April 28
1957.59 - is the 200 DMA, as of the April 25 close.
1954.99 - is the Bullish Falling Wedge target IN PLAY
1953.90 - is the 50% Retracement of the decline from Halloween

Bear Flags/Rising Channels aren't always bearish, as we can see in Chart #2. There's no ALWAYS in the stock market, in my experience. LOL. Gigamedia (GIGM) broke out of two of two "Bear" Flags/"Bearish" Rising Channels to the UPSIDE last September and October, but notice that the 50/200DMAs were closely aligned. Those moving averages also gave a false Bearish Cross signal right before GIGM blasted off to the upside. It's better to watch the pattern breakouts/breakdowns rather than Bullish/Bearish crosses of moving averages, in my opinion. The latter can be very misleading.

The 50/200DMAs in the NAZ 100, however, are badly inverted here: the 50 is well below the 200 DMA, by almost 200 points. While this index still "could" accelerate alot higher here like GIGM did, that doesn't seem likely without some kind of pullback/consolidation first. If we get into the NDX 1950's, I'd be inclined to protect profits and "sell some into strength" and particularly inclined to "take some profits when the target gets MADE."

By the way, the corresponding target IN PLAY in the QQQQ is 48.16. The 200 DMA is nearby, at 48.1884, as of the April 25 close. Last week's high was 47.79, on Thursday.