Monday, April 28, 2008

SPX



(Click On Charts To Enlarge)

Chart #1: I've had the SPX as a downward sloping channel (pattern in blue) not knowing, of course, what the recent action in the SPX would be here in late April. Given that pattern, the SPX put in THREE Bearish Hangmen/Bearish Doji Star Hangmen at the top of the pattern on April 2, 3 and 4, then had a false breakout on April 7 on a FOURTH Bearish Doji Star Hangman, then sold off to the 20/50DMAs, which made a Bullish Cross during the selloff.

April 15 was a nice upside reversal day (at Red #3), and the SPX went up and broke out of the channel on a closing basis. What lends some credence to this Channel pattern is the fact that the top of it was successfully retested THREE times, on April 22, 23 and 24, validating the breakout. That might get INVALIDATED later on, but as the chart stands, the top of the pattern is support, and the SPX has moved up and taken out the 1396 high of the Channel, on both a print and closing basis, on Friday, April 25.

Now the SPX has to get through the down trendline (black) coming off the October high (roughly 1406, which also was the November 26 low) AND take out the top of what looks to be a Bear Flag (pattern in red), which is at roughly 1402 for today, April 28.

So, nearby resistance here is 1402-1406.

Chart #2: Charts evolve, and patterns often "morph" or change into something else. Given the recent action in the SPX, it appears that the downward sloping channel in Chart #1 has "morphed" into either:

(1) a Bullish Inverse H&S (pattern in purple)
(2) a possible DOUBLE Bullish Inverse H&S (pattern in green), in which case it might sell off for a Right Shoulder (green question mark)
(3) an Ascending Triangle (rising dotted purple line).

Hold all paramutual betting tickets. The SPX has to break out into the 1400's and hold it to be bullish ;)

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