The SLV broke out of an Ascending Triangle on Friday, which puts a target of 12.94 IN PLAY. 12.63 still is IN PLAY from the December 15 triangle breakout.
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About Me
- Melf Elf
- Blog Purpose: To share with others what I know about technical analysis and about trading. I am not licensed to give financial advice. I never do so. I don't try to "predict" the market. I try to FOLLOW the market, as best I can. I honestly don't know how high or low a stock is going. I'm not a psychic. I mainly look at chart patterns, trendlines, support and resistance. If a pattern breaks out or breaks down, that gives me a price target that is IN PLAY. That doesn't mean that the target will get MADE. Some do. Some don't. While I try my best to answer questions that are directly related to any of the posts that I make, I don't have time to give individual tutoring. Please check bookstores, libraries and myriad sources on the internet on the subject of technical analysis and take advantage of those resources. Thank you for visiting my blog. I hope that you are able to learn something while you are here.
2 comments:
I have been reviewing SLV here again on your chart.It looks to me that there is a test of 11.48 going on but my question is what event would invalidate your chart pattern? is it a move back into the triangle?
Mark,
I almost missed seeing your question. I was reviewing my posts on the SLV, too, and caught it. The blog doesn't notify me if there is a new message, and after a day or two, I usually don't go back to previous posts to check, so unless it's a very recent post, maybe it's best if you leave a comment on the most recent post so that I'm sure to see it, even if it's about a previous post. Sorry for the problem.
When a stock goes back inside a pattern breakout, it's a pain in the neck. If it's to fill a gap, or tag a moving average, it's at least understandable, as long as it pops back above the breakout relatively quickly. It doesn't invalidate the breakout, but it puts the breakout target ON HOLD. If it goes all the way back below the entire pattern, like the SPX did when it broke below the December triangle, that invalidates the breakout.
So, in this case of the SLV, if we go below 10.20, the January 15 low of the pattern, that would invalidate it, so that has been my stop.
I'm now going to raise my stop to just below this morning's low of 11.62. We had a 12.16 high on Monday and 12.12 high today. If we now break below 11.62, we could be looking at a Double Top.
Especially given the fact that we've had TWO pattern breakouts in the daily chart, we should be on our way higher now. If we aren't, I'll take a few pennies profit from my 11.53 entry. That's probably a bit impatient on my part, but I'm especially not real patient with a lot of fooling around on a DOUBLE breakout, like this one ;)
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