NDX: The New Bull Market

In October and November of last year, when the news was absolutely dreadful, there seemed to be no end of "this is just the beginning of Armageddon" calls. One never wants to leap in front of speeding train, but when we got all of those calls for SPX 500, SPX 400, SPX 250, we at least wanted to be looking for some kind of bottom, as we did in December with our discussions about the "sea change" in the market, particular when Goldman and Morgan Stanley broke out the UPSIDE on horrible earnings, in mid-December.

Looking at this chart, November certainly wasn't the beginning of anything bearish.



The last few weeks, we're hearing that this is a new Bull Market! Huh?! Does this chart look like the beginning of a move to the upside? If anything is beginning, it isn't a Bull Market. The SPX target of 1026.96 got MADE on the nine month anniversary of the beginning of the Bull Market in the NDX, which was the November 21 low of 1018.

I know...I know. There are those who say that this has been "only" a Bear Market rally, and they are entitled to that opinion, but I just will suggest that those folks haven't participated in the extraordinary gains that we've witnessed in many stocks that have rallied 100%...200%...300%...400%...500%, and more. There are plenty of multi-year Bull Markets in which stocks don't rally anywhere close to that. I was looking at VECO this morning, for example, a stock which I've traded a few times. It's up 580% off it's March low. If this has been "just a Bear Market rally," bring on those Bear Markets! LOL.

Chart #1: When the NDX took out 1761 support, then took out 1668 support, failed a retest of 1761 broken support, then moved to new lows, that was confirmation of a continuation move down in an ongoing Bear Market.

Chart #2: When the NDX double-bottomed in March, then took out a Triple Top on April 1, that strongly suggested that it had transitioned into a New Bull Market. The NDX also was above the Kumo (Cloud) basis the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart, and we can "See At A Glance...The Table Of Balance" that it's been gone on the upside since the technical breakout. Confirmation of the breakout was when the 1523.57 and 1531.75 targets got MADE, and we've gone another 100 points beyond than that.

I don't predict anything, as you know. I try to follow the program, as best I can. I have no idea if we're at or near a top, or if we're going a lot higher. Just sayin'. This ain't no beginnin' of a NEW Bull Market! That's my story, and I'm stickin' to it ;)

Meanwhile, if I hear and read very much more about a New Bull Market, I might have to go ALL IN on the short side, just on general principles.

Just kidding. Ju-u-u-ust kidding ;)