From my comments on the July 15 SPX close:
"On the floor of The Exchange yesterday morning, Art Cashin said (paraphrasing) that everyone in the world was watching this H&S Top...
...What I haven't heard discussed, is the the fact that the neckline of the four and a half month Bullish Inverse H&S breakout was support on the selloff from SPX 956, as it "should have been."
This chart is one for the textbooks. The widely advertised putative H&S Top (in red) morphed into a Channel (in blue), right at neckline support of a 4½ month Inverse H&S Bottom (classic Bear Trap). The SPX came off that neckline support and went on an upside screamer of over 140 points in under one month's time and, in the process, made a direct hit yesterday on The Channel target. Whew!
The Channel target of 1003.20 got MADE at 2:20PM in yesterday's going. The session high came in five minutes later, at 1003.61, forty-one cents above the target. As we know, targets do not always get MADE, but it's uncanny how close they can come to being achieved, like this one.
4 comments:
Hi Melf
Have been away for a while so havn't managed to do my 'homework' with you as regularly as I would have liked!
Would you confirm the target on a 'W' breakout please (I think it is the lower top/high of the 'W' less the inverted 'v' tip of the 'W'; then add this to the lower high leg reading of the 'W').
Would you also confirm your target of 1003 stems from the difference between pts 1 and 4 of the down channel, added to the point of breakout, please.
I would thank you for the effort you put into this site (my favourites are the trading snippets you put in showing how you 'managed' a position for entry and exit). It has actually made a definable difference to the way I now trade AND I am much better at spotting trades. Thank you again.
Regards
Alex
Hi, Alex,
Hope that you had a nice time while you were away. Sorry, I'm not sure what you are referring to regarding the "W." I don't see one in the SPX chart. Are you looking at the daily or 1-Minute chart? If you want to describe the dates or prices, I'll try to see what you're looking at.
Regarding the 1003.20 target, yes, it's the difference between Points #1 and #4, added to the point of the breakout. Very good!
Point #1: 956.23
Point #4: 869.32
956.23 - 869.32 = 86.91 points of upside on the breakout above 916.29.
916.29 + 86.91 = Target: 1003.20 IN PLAY
Hi Melf
I was getting confused with the projections (and measuring parameters) on a W formation. I found what I was looking for in your posting of June 17th. Thanks.
Regards
Alex
Okay, Alex. Glad that you found what you were looking for.
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