GOOG: Return To The Scene Of The Crime

I found it interesting to see GOOG trading in after hours in the 595's, up $66 from the close, on an earnings beat.

595.19, to the exact penny, was the April Fool's Day "Scene Of The Crime," when GOOG:

(1) Failed at the 595.19 retest of the secondary low of the Descending Triangle (pattern in black)
(2) Failed at the top of the Rising Wedge (pattern in blue)
(3) Failed below Kumo (Cloud) overhead resistance (vertical red lines)

If there's such a thing as a "perfect entry," shorting GOOG coming off the April Fool's Day failure at 595.19, given that "body of evidence" at validated resistance, would be an example of one.

Additional very good entries short were:

(1) The breakdown of the Rising Wedge
(2) The failed retest of the Rising Wedge, three days later
(3) The Breakaway Gap Down out of the H&S Top on April 15
(4) The Breakdown of the Ascending Triangle, on May 13 (red up arrow)

As we've witnessed in recent posts on stocks like BIDU and AMZN, there's such a thing as "staying too long at the fair" when stocks are nearing, or at, targets or support or resistance, after a breakout or a breakdown.

The last downside target of 116.02 in BIDU got MADE on June 16 (the low was 114.14), prior to the stock ripping to the upside, to 148.44 on July 7.

After a sizeable selloff, AMZN bounced off DOUBLE validated support at a low of 181.59, then the Bullish Inverse H&S Bottom target of 215.86 finally got MADE on July 6.

The H&S Top target in GOOG did not get MADE, but there was plenty of profit to be had on the short side on the three pattern breakdowns, and there were signs that the 461 target would not get MADE when the stock began to make "higher highs" above 493.94 and above 506.69 (the horizontal blue lines with stop signs), knocking out some stops on the short trade.

The July 5 Gap Up into the Kumo (Cloud), from 521.28, was NOT filled during the formation of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in black) inside the Kumo. The first attempt to get through the Kumo resistance at Black #1 failed, which often is the case on the first attempt. At yesterday's close, Data Point #4 (Black #4) of a Symmetrical Triangle was established, so GOOG was "good to go" on any upside takeout of Black trendline #1-#3, which would be a Symmetrical Triangle breakout, as well as a breakout above the Kumo (Cloud).

ANYTHING can happen on the reporting of earnings. Although the chart was "good to go" on the upside, it certainly wasn't "predicting" that the earnings would be a beat. If the earnings had been a miss, GOOG could be gapping down below the Kumo (Cloud), instead of above it.

If this morning's Gap Up were a Breakaway Gap up out of the Symmetrical Triangle, into the 540's, I would consider that very playable on the long side. But, a Gap Up "Return To The Scene Of The Crime," near 595? She's gone on the upside!

Nice for The Bulls. Brutal for The Bears, if they "stayed to long at the fair" and didn't cover their positions. They've given back all of their gains if they shorted near the April Fools' Day failure at 595, and they're under water, after holding a big winner, if they held short any of the breakdowns that followed. UGH.

"Never let a big winner turn into a loser." Ratchet down the stops (the recent blue horizontal lines) and don't be stubborn about insisting that targets will get MADE. Targets only indicate direction and are "what we're aiming for."

Rats! I can't end on a preposition. Okay. "...for what we are aiming?"

Reminds me of a joke. A southern girl and a northern girl are seated together on an airplane:

Southern Girl: So-o, where y'all from?

Northern Girl: I am from a place where we do NOT end our sentences in a preposition!

Southern Girl: Oh. So-o, where y'all from, BITCH?!"