(Click Directly On Chart For Better Viewing)
ACOR Bulls now have established:
1) An upside breakout of the Bullish Wolfe Wave/Bullish Falling Wedge on September 26.
(2) Two successful re-tests of the breakout: September 27 and October 1.
(3) A rally to a post-breakout new high, above 19.14.
(4) A rally above the Wolfe Wave 4 high of 19.78, the first a "higher high," since the Bears took control back in May.
(5) A third day of rally on successively increasing volume each day.
(6) A fourth day of rally with a slightly higher high, at 21.20, but on less volume.
Suggested stop remains the same: 18.99. The target line (Wave 6) is at 22.252 today, October 5. If ACOR should have a fifth day of rally today over $22, I'll sell into strength, but I expect a pullback here.
For some reason, I haven't been able to post on Yahoo Message Boards since yesterday morning. I keep getting Error Message 999 (?), "Sorry, we can't process your request..." so if anyone reading this would like to link my blog to the ACOR Board for those following this pattern, please feel free to do so. I have a thread going on that board called "Bullish Wolfe Wave/Falling Wedge." Thanks :)
5 comments:
Melf'
You have called ACOR well this week, I established a short Position today(I have many times in the past) I plan to cover at $16.80, and go long again into $20's, can you provide a 1 year trend analysis to see if my strategy has a chance?
Conmanjd,
Thanks. I've been trying to respond to you on the ACOR Board regarding your post about the Seeking Alpha article, but I keep getting "Error #999" Message.
Gr-r-r...
In any position that you take in the market, you want to play WITH the trend. As I've been explaining with the various bullish moves in ACOR since it broke out of the Bullish Wolfe Wave, it successfully re-tested the breakout and contines to do things that are bullish, so we have plenty of evidence that the trend is now Bullish.
You're fighting against the trend by shorting here, and although this particular trade might work out for you, and I hope that it does, you aren't favored any time that you play against a trend.
Why did you short, by the way? Technical...fundamental reasons?
Tops are very difficult to call, and you might get dragged higher in a short position before your downside target is achieved ($16.80 in your case).
Witness the recent short squeezes in GIGM and RIMM, as examples (the charts are both in GIGM posts). Both have been absolutely merciless on the shorts, so make sure that you have a stop to protect yourself.
As I said in this morning's post, I didn't expect a fifth day of rally in ACOR today, which we've gotten, and I can understand why you might think that ACOR will pull back here, but there isn't any limit to the number of days that a stock can rally, especially a bullish stock like ACOR is at the moment, and you might get only a very shallow selloff before it resumes the current uptrend.
In answer to your question about the 1 year trend analysis, if this breakout in ACOR were like the 14-month pattern breakout in SVA (see that post), I would be able to tell you what longer-term target the pattern breakout put IN PLAY, but this Bullish Wolfe Wave is only a short-term pattern, and that's all I've got on it.
I'll post more comments about shorting ACOR in my next post on it, hopefully this weekend.
Good luck to you in all of your trades, and thanks for your post on the Seeking Alpha article.
Melf,
I have been shorting ACOR on and off for the last 11 months. I knew they were cash strapped and expected a secondary, but it didn't take down the pps the way I expected. Zanaflex is a joke as far as a company surviving just on it goes. Zanaflex should be in the hands of a real pharma, now the generics will come and little ACOR won't be able to stop them.
A 600 Million market cap is ubsurd at this point, and take a look at the insider selling, and Mary Fischers questionable exit. I don't think Fampridine-SR will get approved it's first go around.
I respect your T.A., but I consider TA worthless in biotech, but what do I know.
As far as yahoo goes, someone probably reported you for something, it happens to me, you may have to create a new name restart your computer and attempt to post, I also have AOL, and browse out of that window to get around it....
Are you still long?
One more question for you....
You called ACOR so dead on, I would be curious to hear your thoughts on AUTH.
I purchased this just Monday for $10.05 (1000 shares) and it went on a phenomenal run!
Mainly because of being added to the RUssell 3000, I believe.
I am curious to hear what you think.
(I respect your T.A., but I consider TA worthless in biotech, but what do I know.)
conmanjd,
As you probably can tell, I'm a technical analyst, so we're probably talking apples to oranges here. I'm an agnostic, as far as the fundamentals are concerned. My play in ACOR is just "playing a chart." It could be any chart.
Yes, I'm still long, although we got "close enough" to the Wolfe Wave target today at 22.25 that I had a hard time not grabbing it for a about an 18% gain from my 18.35 entry, in 4 days. It's hard to pass up that kind of money in such a short time :(
If I get stopped out my 18.99 stop, my old "coulda ... shoulda woulda" Demon will be nipping at my heels, because I'll only have a pitiful 3.5% gain, but I try to stay disciplined and "Plan my trade, and trade my plan."
I'm of no help to you at all, as far as the fundamentals are concerned.
I'm not familar at all with AUTH. If I take the time to look at and analyze stocks that other people are looking at, I'm going to ending working for other people, which is the reason that I started working for myself in the first place. LOL.
My time is very valuable to me, especially as I've grown older, and I hope that you can understand and appreciate that :)
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