ASPV: DOUBLE INVERSE H&S BREAKOUT

On September 20, ASPV appeared to have a false breakout of the Double Inverse H&S patterns (the two patterns in green) when it put in a high on the day at 20.50 ( which was the July high), then closed back below the neckline (the green horizontal line connecting the highs of 20.50 and 20.29).

The next session, however, ASPV pulled off the breakout, closing above the neckline and above the July high of 20.50. Volume left something to be desired (563,000 shares), but that improved to 697,200 the next session, and on the current pullback to the neckline, volume is less than what it was on both of those days, which is good. There isn't a lot of interest in selling.

The target for the "mini" Inverse H&S (pattern in green, the first two weeks of August) was 20.53 (near the 20.50 July high), and that target got MADE on the September 21 breakout. That's bullish confirmation, when upside targets are achieved.

Another bullish factor is that the "bad news" about ASPV and Roche not proceeding with Cellcept for Lupus Nephritis on September 10 resulted in a selloff to form the Right Shoulder of the Bullish Inverse H&S, and then the stock broke out.

Market maxim: "It isn't the news that's important, but rather, the market's reaction to the news that's important."

In this case, the market's reaction to "bad news" played out as "good news." ASPV broke out.

Pullbacks to pattern breakouts are common, which is what we're experiencing now. What we'd like to see on any further pullback is for the neckline and the 200 DMA to hold, as support. For today, October 1, that would be 20.18 and 20.07, respectively.

Any close back below the neckline (currently 20.18) puts the breakout in question, particularly if the stock languishes back below the neckline for any length of time.

Any takeout of the low of the Right Shoulder, which was the 18.31 low of the September 10 "bad news day" would invalidate the bullish pattern.

A measured move target of 24.79 is IN PLAY as long as ASPV trades above the neckline of the pattern. Targets don't always get MADE, and sometimes they are exceeded. They're just what we're "aiming for," based on what the pattern suggests.

Fundamentally, this would be a nice juncture for some good news on the stock because, technically, the chart is good to go.

(Click On Chart To Enlarge It, For Better Viewing)