Wednesday, June 22, 2011

FCX, AMZN And BIDU



Bull Traps and Bear Traps get "sprung" when a pattern breaks out or breaks down, then reverses and breaks out in the other direction and remains above or below the pattern.

At the white arrow, The Bears managed to break the Triple Bottom, nominally ("in name only"), by three cents, but The Bulls stuck the close at 47.41, smack on the Triple Bottom for a "cliffhanger close" (my term, not anything in textbooks).

The resolution of "the cliffhanger close" was sprung Bear Trap Gap Up opening, above the Rectangle. The Bears who didn't cover at the Triple Bottom, or who shorted the nomimal technical breakdown of the Triple Bottom near Monday's close, were trapped in their short positions.

Additionally, The Bears have been accustomed to "Gap And Crap" openings in FCX in which the stock gaps up at the open, then fizzles, like we saw on Monday, and they've gotten rewarded for shorting those "Gap And Crap" openings. Yesterday, The Bears got punished for shorting the Gap Up opening and were squeezed higher for most of the session in a "buying begets buying" rally. Here's what I mean by that:

The Bears who didn't cover at Monday's Triple Bottom were buyers. Bears who shorted the Gap Up opening became buyers later in the session when they saw that the gap didn't get filled, and that the stock moved to a "higher high," above the early rally to 48.37, and kept going higher. Bulls who liked the Gap Up technical breakout of the Rectangle were buyers. Bulls who liked the upside takeout of Monday's 48.28 high were buyers. Bulls who liked the upside takeout of 48.80 resistance at Black Trendline #2-#4 in the daily chart (see next chart) were buyers. The proverbial "everyone" is a buyer in a "sprung trap" situation like this one. Now, not literally "everyone." You get the idea.



From yesterday morning:

"The Bulls need to eat some spinach and quit fooling around here. First order of business for them is to go up an knock out the 47.89-47.92 highs of this Rectangle."

The Bulls sprung the Bear Trap with an opening of 48.05 and a session low of 47.95, above The Rectangle highs. Nothing like a good can of spinach to accomplish the first order of business, eh?! LOL.

Yesterday's rally puts The Bulls out of Harm's Way, at least temporarily, and back in The Neutral Zone, above Black Trendline #2-#4, which comes in today at 48.585. That "should be" support on any selloff if The Bulls want to stay in The Neutral Zone.

While yesterday was some confirmation that Thursday's Long-Leggetty Doji Star and Monday's Inverted Hammer were bullish, the intermediate-term still is bearish, below the Kumo (Cloud). The Bulls still need to prove themselves by:

1. Breaking out of The Flag (pattern in black)

2. Breaking out of The Wedge (pattern in blue)

3. Taking out the 50.38 high at Blue #4 of The Flag.

4. Getting through Kumo (Cloud) resistance, overhead (seen in Monday's Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart)



From Friday, on AMZN

"...I saw that AMZN had bounced off support, near 181.64, so I put in a buy order for 1,000 shares at 181.75.

This chart is the reason why my downside target for AMZN was "roughly" 182.00...and is the reason why I wanted to get long at 181.75. It all depended on where Blue Trendline #2-#4 of the Falling Wedge came in, if/when AMZN sold off."

That trendline validation of the bottom of the Falling Wedge (Blue #2-#4) was successful. AMZN broke out yesterday and rallied al-l-lmost got to the top of The Kumo, which came in yesterday at 196.222.



From Saturday, on BIDU:

"The Bear Flag target of 116.02 got MADE in Thursday's trading...The Bear Flag is done. For that reason, it's always a good idea to "take profits, or at least 'some' profits, when targets get MADE." In this case, on short positions."

The Bears had a nice run in BIDU off the May 2 channel breakdown and failed retest in the 147's and 148's, but they "stayed too long at the fair" if they didn't cover their shorts at the final downside target of 116.02 (or thereabouts) from the June 6 Bear Flag breakdown. The Bears got squeezed in yesterday's session and were under pressure to cover all the way into the 127.71 close.

2 comments:

Mary said...

Thanks, Melf. Best way to start day . .Melf and a cup of coffee :-)

Mary

Melf Elf said...

Haha! Thanks, Mary.