Friday, June 24, 2011

FCX And AMZN



(Click on charts to enlarge. Click on them again for further enlargement. Use the left arrow on your browser to return to the narrative).

Losses never are easy to take, but the most difficult ones for me are when I've basically gotten the trade right, but end up with a loss. I had such a trade in FCX yesterday.

I bought 2,500 shares of it at 47.57 (horizontal white line), at the gap left in the 10-Minute chart from Tuesday morning's Gap Up Rectangle breakout, playing it for at least a partial fill of the gap down opening. I didn't expect the 47.37-47.41 lows of the Rectangle to hold (horizontal yellow line), so I allowed for that by putting my mental stop at 47.17, above the June 16 low of 47.06 (horizontal red line). Given that the market was down so hard, I wanted to limit my risk, and not have to sell into fast market conditions if the stock got out of hand on the downside.

I stopped the trade out at 47.17, for $1,000 loss, just six cents above the session low of 47.11 fer cryin' out loud, then FCX took off to the upside, completely filling the morning gap, and closing up on the session. Say it ain't so!

Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh! LOL.

With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it's easy to see that I would have been golden if I had used the 47.06 as my stop, but we all "coulda ... shoulda ...woulda." I made my decision not to do that, and I had to own it, and move on, which I did.

I also had purchased AMZN in the early going, and I needed to focus on that trade, not the "Gee, but I basically had it right" loss of $1,000 in FCX. (Grumble ... grumble ... grumble).

STOP THAT, Melf! Move on!



On yesterday's early morning smackdown, AMZN was my "go to" choice because the daily chart is bullish. I almost caught the exact 181.59 low in the stock on June 16 when "they" didn't fill my order at 181.75 (another disappointment ... grumble ... grumble ...LOL), so I've been watching it for a buying opportunity on a selloff.



I bought 1,000 shares of AMZN at 188.86 at horizonal support (188.85 was a prior high), when the stock was down nearly three dollars on the session. It went down to a low of 188.30, then broke out of this nice Bull Flag:



I sold into the rally (white down arrow) through the inverted EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages), planning to buy it back if I got a selloff to the lower EMA (white up arrow), which I got. That was nice.

I sold it again into the next rally, bought it back again on the next selloff, then sold it again into another rally for a gain of $3,300 on the three AMZN trades.

You all would know that I was lying if I said that gain made up for the FCX trade. Even though I "got over it" during trading, the market is shut now, so it rankles just a little. Curses! LOL.



I finished for the day after the third AMZN trade, but there was another nice buying opportunity around 2:20PM when the stock retested the EMAs, which now were properly threaded, with the 13EMA above the 21EMA and with the 21EMA above the 34EMA. The stock had "gotten in gear," and the icing on the cake for a trade was the Falling Wedge breakout (pattern in white). That was a nice, nice setup.

AMZN finished the day at 194.16, up 2.53, and up nearly six dollars off the session low.



Loss on FCX: $1,000 (UGH)
Gain on AMZN: $3,300

Gain on the session: $2,300

3 comments:

Mary said...

Interesting, Melf . .and you came out ahead. That is nice trading. I followed your thinking there on FCX . . good reading. I see you your thinking on Amazon clearly as well . .you have so much less "clutter" than me on your charts . .3 ema's and your trendlines . .no oscillators . that's it. Hmmm . . you are good.

Mary

Melf Elf said...

Thanks, Mary,

Yes, I probably looked at every indicator imagineable over the years and concluded that they only served to confuse me. "Less is more."

Mary said...

Have a good weekend, Melf!

Mary