SPX, SLW, X And FCX

From June 2 (Pattern and Target Review):

"Support at the bottom of the Falling Wedge comes in today 1303.85, but if The Bears take out the May 25 session low of 1311.80, that would put in a near-term Double Top: the May high of 1346.82 and the May 31 high of 1345.20, so that might be a problem for The Bulls if that May 25 low gets taken down.

1311.80 is the intervening little pivot between the two shoulders of the "M"-Top, or Double Top (synonymous). For the downside target, I always use the more conservative of my two choices: 1346.82 and 1345.20.

1345.20 - 1311.80 = 33.40 points of downside from the 1311.80 breakdown.
1311.80 - 33.40 = Target: 1278.40 IN PLAY, as long as the SPX trades below 1311.80."

The Double Top target of 1278.40 got MADE in yesterday's session. The session low was 1277.42.



We never get FINAL confirmation of a breakout or breakdown unless/until a target gets MADE. In order for this channel (and subsequent breakdown) to be valid, we would need to see a return to the bottom of the channel, or something reasonably close to that.

SLW printed 32.43 yesterday, which was the bottom of the channel, so the channel and breakdown were valid, ipso facto.

At the 32.12 low, SLW also came with eleven cents of the Triple Top (fourth red arrow) target of 32.01 that has been IN PLAY since May 11. That's pretty close. If anyone short elected to cover some, or all, of their position, no one could blame them.



Yesterday was the fourth consecutive session in which I've shorted US Steel. The two downside targets in this daily chart still are IN PLAY.



I shorted X right after the open, at 42.75, and during the period circled, wondered what the heck was holding this stock up. Impatience is one of my many shortcomings. I finally got bored with it and covered the position for a $500 gain (white arrow). X rallied one more time, then it sold off. Served me right, for being so impatient. Curses!



Scottrade's initial indication of the close was 48.835 EXACTLY, smack on Trendline #2-#4. This one is too close to call, but technically, the 48.82 close is a violation of the trendline.



I bought 2500 shares of FCX on a market order when it got down to the 48.835 trendline. I got a real decent fill on the order, however, I didn't like the fact that it KEPT going down, below that trendline. That's bearish territory and I wanted FCX to hold at that support, or a few pennies below it, not sloppy behavior.

For that reason, I decided to sell the rally back toward the morning low of 49.15 and got out at 49.10 for a $700 gain.



FCX rallied only to 49.29 after I exited (red arrow) It went to a new low for the session and traded below 48.835 support on two more occasions (three white arrows), continuing with the sloppy behavior that I didn't like on the first test of 48.835 support.



Gain on the session: $1,200.