XING And APWR

Some of you might think that I've been joking when I've said that my opinion about what the market, or a stock, is going to do (PREDICTING) is wrong more than 50% of the time, but I honestly am not joking. I am absolutely horrible at "predicting" anything which is why I try my best to FOLLOW what the market, or a stock, is doing.

Not "going to do." "IS DOING." Then based on what it "is doing," I decide if I want to play it and, if so, structure a trade accordingly. Example: My recent trade in XING. I bought it for 2.07 on May 13 based on what I saw it "doing." XING had broken out of The Falling Channel (in blue), established a a neckline at 2.19 ... 2.12 ... 214 for a Bullish Inverse H&S breakout, and it was retesting The Falling Channel breakout. I didn't know what it was going to do, but based on what it was "doing," I bought it with a stop at April 28 low of 1.63 for a risk:reward of roughly 1:2 if XING broke out and the 2.84 target got MADE, and a 1:3 if the 3.34 got MADE.

The day after I bought it, XING dipped below The Falling Channel, to 1.81, finished the session on a Bullish Hammer, then four days later, broke out of the Bullish Inverse H&S and rallied to 2.2299. That was a new high for the move, so I raised my stop to below the 1.81 low, which improved my risk:reward on the trade to roughly 1:3 and 1:4.

After the breakout, XING pulled back to 1.89, then broke out again to a new high, on heavy volume. I raised the stop again, to below 1.89, again improving my risk:reward on the trade. In the back of my mind, though, I really didn't want to see the 2.19...2.12...2.14 neckline again, after a DOUBLE breakout of The Falling Channel and the Bullish Inverse H&S pattern. Is this thing bullish or NOT? C'mon, here!!

After about a week and a half of lackluster trading, with no upside follow-thru, I threw it in at 2.10 when XING went below the 2.19...2.12...2.14 that I did NOT want to see again. In my view, if a retest of the top of a DOUBLE breakout didn't attract A LOT of buying interest, I wasn't interested either. My sale at 2.10 ended up being the low of the day, just to further annoy me. LOL.

Did I "know" or "predict" that XING would be at 1.80, at yesterday's close? Certainly not. I was "following" XING, and I simply didn't like what I was seeing., so please don't think that I "predicted" anything. I didn't.

At yesterday's 1.80 close, I wouldn't have been stopped out below 1.87, and if I had kept the stop below 1.81, I would have been stopped out there, as well. That leaves only the stop below the 1.63 low of the Right Shoulder. The top of The Falling Channel comes in today, June 24, at 1.689 and the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) comes in at 1.675, so if XING should go down there and bounce off those supports, then "all is not lost." As we discussed at the weekend, a takeout of a Right Shoulder should NEVER occur, and while there's no "always" or "never" in the stock market, the rule is pretty close to a "never." The majority of Right Shoulder takeouts really are failures, in my experience.

Geez, I might end up using those "thousand words" if I make this one as long as XING, so I'm going to try to be brief on this one. LOL.

On APWR, again, I'm not capable of "predicting" anything. I only can "follow" what it "is doing," and what it "is doing" is breaking a lot of support levels:

1. The top of the Symmetrical Triangle (Purple Trendline #1-#3), which "should have" acted as support on a retest.

2. The 9.60 low at Purple #4, the "last low" prior to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout. That "shouldn't have" gotten taken out before the 15.11 pattern target got MADE, but it did get taken out.

3. The top of the Kumo (Cloud), represented by the vertical lines. That "should" act as support on a retest, and if it doesn't, the chances are increased that the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) will get tested, which it did.

4. The 7.79 low of the Symmetrical Triangle. APWR has made a "lower low," below that.

The .618% retracement of the 389% rally is 7.46. The Bottom of the Kumo is 7.48. Yesterday's low was 7.22, so that's in the ballpark, and some analysts use the more arcane .764 retracement (the reciprocal of .236) as an acceptable level of retracement.

Stocks that come down on very heavy volume, like APWR did, usually need time to do some basing before another rally, if it's still bullish. The selloff was so dramatic, a snapback rally here up toward the top of the Kumo (Cloud) and toward the 8-Day Tenkan-sen (green line) and 21-Day Kijun-sen (red line), which have had a Bearish Cross, might be on tap, but longs who bought the technical breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle at 11.10, or higher, are trapped up there if they didn't sell the earnings disappointment on June 16, and they're feeling some pain at today's price of 8.04. Some of them will be sellers into a rally. The 21-Day Kijun-sen is at 10.95.

I'm running late, so no time to proofread. Apologies for any mistakes.