On June 4, regarding XING, Mark said:
"I had been watching but when the BO happened I was otherwise engaged and missed the entry. You did as well."
I replied:
"I bought XING three weeks ago and still am long."
Since my buddy, Mark, kinda "outted me" (LOL) by assuming that I wasn't long XING, I feel obligated to report that I threw it in yesterday for a small gain. While the chart still looks okay and yesterday's break and close back below 2.23 could turn out alright, as I've said before, XING is a stock that knows how to disappoint, so I had it on a short leash.
In future, folks, if I don't specifically state that I have a position in a stock, please don't make any assumptions. I don't play all of the stocks about which I post. Some are for trading ideas. Some are for learning purposes. My purpose isn't to run and manage a trading blog. Too much work.
Gap down in Goldman yesterday morning, below Friday's low, which looked like an instant replay of Friday's Gap down below Thursday's close. I shorted it again, at 144.87, just below the 144.90 50% retracement of Friday's 145.64 close, and the Gap Down to 144.17.
The instant replay continued when Goldman blew right past my short entry, but the parallel ended when Goldman got to 145.60, within four cents of completely filling the gap from Friday's 145.64 close, then failed. That was the session high.
The early session low was 143.90. After the failure at the 145.64 gap, Goldman still was holding well above the low, trading roughly in the 144.30s, and above, showing good relative strength vs. the general market. I decided to cover any selloff toward the 143.90 low, then try to jockey for a better postion on any strength.
That's a "Deal, or No Deal" situation. I "took the deal," (banked the gain), knowing that I might not get the chance to re-short at a higher price, and I didn't. That's fine.
This chart is the "Rising Wedge Scenario #2." Goldman closed below the wedges in BOTH scenarios. Retests of broken patterns are common, and are to be expected. On the downside, I've read from various different sources that the target for a broken rising wedge is origin of the pattern, but I haven't found that to be reliable. Some of them do return to the origin, but a lot of them don't.
I look at horizontal support as targets for scaling out of short positions, which would be the lows of the pattern as it progressed higher. Those would be:
140.74 - the June 3 low (the little doji star).
133.92-134.60 - the lows at Blue Data Point #4.
128.06 - the low at the black arrow, which would be the low in Rising Wedge Scenario #1 that we looked at, originally.
113.38 - that would be a return to the origin of the pattern, in Rising Wedge Scenario #2.
Gain on Goldman: $800.
6 comments:
Thanks again for your interest in my education. I must say that I am as interested in your frame of mind and thought process when you enter and exit trades as anything else. I know you are wary of making what could be construed as recommendations. There's too much responsibility that comes with it. I've been there.
Good Morning, Mark,
You're very welcome, my friend. Yes, on the trades that I do post, I try to explain my thought process for entering and exiting. Otherwise, it isn't of much use to anyone.
Are you still charting faz? any thoughts on it lately?
thanks
Kyle
Good Morning, Kyle,
Since we last looked at the FAZ around March 20 when it failed at $35, at the bottom of Rectangle resistance, it's been down ... down ... down... UGH.
Basis the Hourly chart, the FAZ just broke out of an Ascending Triangle. The highs were an identical 4.62 ... 4.62. The low of the pattern was 4.18, so that puts a target of 5.06 IN PLAY.
Math:
4.62 - the highs
4.18 - the low
4.62 - 4.18 = 0.44 points of upside on the breakout.
4.62 + 0.44 = Target: 5.06 IN PLAY
The breakout above 4.62 was retested this morning. The low was 4.61, and the FAZ has moved up off the successful retest, and also has taken out yesterday's 4.68 high, so that looks fine.
The most recent high, on June 3, was 4.97, near the 5.06 target that is IN PLAY, so if the FAZ continues higher from here (it's currently at 4.72), that's horiztontal resistance.
Remember that targets that are against the trend (the trend is bearish), are less likely to get made than targets that are with the trend.
Good luck if you're playing it!
Melf,
thanks for the update on goldman. while you have stressed that bearish rising wedges don't always break to the downside, i was pleased to see goldman do so. looking at the 1 hour chart i now see a bullish wedge starting a week ago. do you see this?
Kevin
Hey, Kevin!
I see what you mean about the Falling Wedge in the Hourly Chart. I can't get a good trendline, connecting the tops, but it's possible, especially given how well Goldman is holding up in this selloff.
Not much follow-thru to the downside after the Rising Wedge break, and it's had every excuse to do so in the market selloff the past two days.
It Double-Bottomed going into the close yesterday, stayed in the green all day, and closed up a little over a buck, showing good relative strength.
I shorted it again today, which is becoming like wrestling with the devil ;) It truly is "the stock that STUBBORNLY refuses to die," isn't it? LOL.
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