GS, AGU And AZO

From Saturday:

"If the neckline of this pattern gets broken, that would put roughly 80.95 IN PLAY, which still would be above lateral support in the daily chart above, so Goldman still wouldn't die at that price. LOL."

The H&S Top target of 80.95 got MADE yesterday.

Goldman has been a stellar performer on the upside, but even stellar peformers are tradeable on the short side, if given good reason to do it. The TRIPLE H&S Top in Goldman's Hourly Chart in January, and again, this H&S Top best seen in the 10-Minute chart, both were eminently tradeable as shorts.


In mid-February, no fewer than 4 analysts had targets on Agrium from $45-$61, including the analyst who downgraded it. 3 of the analysts upgraded their price target. When the analysts get crowded like that on a call, it always makes me a tad suspicious. LOL.

On Febrruay 23, shortly after the analysts' calls, AGU closed below a Bear Flag. It had a one day rally back inside the Bear Flag, then it tanked. The 30.82 target got MADE on Monday.



Interesting, interesting chart.

I hadn't looked at this until yesterday morning, when AZO was called higher on earnings. We can see that the little intraday upside fakeout at Wave 5 was a VERY reasonable short. That appeared to be a Wave 5 "Fakeout/Breakout," and AZO appeared to headed toward the Wave 6 target line.

This is a great example of the fundamentals trumping the technicals. Bears were pickled on the upside gap because they "should" cover the breakout above the Wave 5 high and if they didn't, it really tested their mettle as AZO went screaming higher off the open, to 157.49. WICKED short squeeze!

The session ended on a Bearish Doji Star Hangman, and on big volume, so the shorts still have "hope" if AZO gaps down and leaves a Bearish Island Reversal Doji Star Hangman on the chart. It doesn't have to gap down to be bearish, but it does need to reverse back inside the "possible" Bearish Wolfe Wave for the Bears to have a case at all.

I'm not one who likes to "hope." As the saying goes, "Hope isn't a strategy." If I had been short AZO at yesterday's open, I would have covered immediately. No waiting to see if I'm going to "get saved." AZO just as easily "could have" continued higher and closed in the $160's, putting a terrible hurtin' on the shorts. In my view, "admit when you're wrong as quickly as possible" and get outta there. Short squeezes can be absolutely merciless on the upside, dragging them higher and higher and higher...UGH.

That said, AZO didn't keep screaming higher, so the shorts do have a decent chance for a downside reversal here, back inside this "possible" Bearish Wolfe Wave. The purpose of a Wolfe Wave (bullish or bearish) is to put the proverbial "everyone" wrong-footed, and that certainly would be accomplished if AZO reverses here, and continues down. Bears who bought to cover and Bulls who bought yesterday's upside Breakaway Gap both will be caught wrong-footed, and there are a lot of them. Volume was big.