The Head (in red) of the pattern is a Bear Flag. The pattern in yellow is a Rising Channel, or another Bear Flag, if you will. Notice that the lower trendline on the latter is a validated trendline (at the yellow arrow), which is where I planned to short the SKF this morning on a breakdown there. That trendline comes in at roughly 236 at this morning's open.
It doesn't look like I'll get the chance, though. The SKF is called gap down, well below the 227.47-230.15 neckline of the H&S Top, currently at BID: 219.00...219.34. I won't "short into the hole," meaning that the short trade already will be gone on the downside at the open, but I would consider a short on a retest of the broken neckline, which will come in at the open at roughly 232.50 and rises with each ten minute bar.
The "last low" of the Rising Channel/Bear Flag at the trendline validation was 234.28, and that trendline also rises a little with each bar, currently at roughly 236. That would be a tempting short entry on any retest, as well.
If I already were short, given the big gap down indication at the open, I'd cover a gap fill of 210.00-207.88 from last Thursday morning's gap up opening, and look to reshort a rally from there, if I got one.
The break of the Rising Channel/Bear Flag will put roughly 215.50 IN PLAY.
The break of the H&S Top will put roughly 195.00 IN PLAY.
9 comments:
Melf,
It's nice to see you do an analysis on SKF.
Thanks again for all the help.
Hey, Jegejig!
Great to see you again!
The SKF and UYG sure have been interesting since we spoke last year. In fact, the two Bullish Wolfe Wave targets that got MADE in the SKF on July 15 and on October 10, 2008 are the most stunning examples I've seen of how powerful those patterns can be.
Good trading to you!
Melf,
I'm glad I listened to some of the posters at the SKF board.
They suggested that I create my own blog - I did.
It seems so much easier to keep track of good traders and I get to say hi to you. :)
Jegejig,
That's great. What's your blog address?
Melf,
I am one of your followers.
If you click on my icon, the link to my blog is there.
Here's my blog address:
http://jegejigs.blogspot.com/
My trades are not looking good on SKF so far.
UYG on the other hand, not doing too bad.
Let's see how the day ends later on.
March 10, 2009 thread:
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_U/threadview?m=te&bn=58157&tid=342170&mid=342170&tof=1&frt=1#342170
Okay, Jegejig, got it. Thanks!
Just a general question Melf,
How do you go about identifying charts of interest. You appear to have a repertoire of favorites. Do you also have a scanning program that saves time?
Good Morning, Mark,
No, I don't have a scanning program. I generally like stocks that are very liquid so that I can get in and out relatively easily.
I've liked stocks like Goldman and Morgan, for example, because they've tracked real well as far as tracing out well-defined chart patterns, and hitting their targets is concerned.
If a stock is in the news, like the JP Morgan downgrade of Apple Computer, I often will focus on that chart in an effort to discern whether or not the stock is at a key inflection point, which Apple was the morning of the downgrade (see that post, last week).
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