The initial response to AMZN's earnings after the bell on Thursday was negative, but by the open on Friday, the response was VERY positive. The Cup & Handle target of 82.24 from the January 30 Breakaway Gap got MADE, nominally (within six cents), at Wednesday's high of 82.18, but AMZN had a lot more in it on the upside on Friday, much of it having to do with a squeeze on the shorts since AMZN was at a new high off its move from the 34.68 November low. At yesterday's high, AMZN was up a sizzling 150% since last autumn.
I like a stock that "hits its marks" like this. The Bull Flag, the Bearish Wolfe Wave and the Cup & Handle targets all got MADE.
In addition to the favorable response to AMZN's earnings, further indication of a rally on Friday was this late day breakout in the QLD on Thursday afternoon that put 32.76 IN PLAY. I was concerned about a possible "Fakeout/Breakout" at Thursday's close, but Friday morning's opening indication suggested that the breakout was for real.
Math:
31.76 and 31.73 - Neckline
31.75 - Is where the neckline was when the 30.71 low got put in
31.75 - 30.71 = 1.04 points of upside on a breakout, which was at 31.72.
31.72 + 1.04 = Target: 32.76 IN PLAY
A problem for The Bears in Friday's session was that when the 32.76 Bullish Inverse H&S target got MADE, in the hourly chart, that was a technical breakout of this Ascending Triangle (pattern in white), the highs of which we an identical 32.68. That breakout propelled the market even higher, further squeezing the shorts, who would like to see the Ascending Triangle "morph" (change) into a Bear Flag (pattern in red).
Friday morning, when I saw that the Thursday afternoon Bullish Inverse H&S Bottom in the QLD was going to hold up, my "go to" stock was FSLR, which I had played on Wednesday. It was called gap down to 143.00 where I got long, but it had this potential Ascending Triangle in place which broke out very shortly after I got long. That put a target of 148.67 IN PLAY.
Math:
144.71 - the more conservative of the 144.74 and 144.71 highs
140.75 - low of the pattern
144.71 - 140.75 = 3.96 points of upside on a breakout.
144.71 + 3.96 = Target: 148.67 IN PLAY.
Comment from my Wednesday long play in FSLR:
"Although 149.06 was IN PLAY when FSLR broke out again, given that the general market has broken those Bearish Rising Wedges that we've all been watching, I wasn't going to be that ambitious with my upside target. I decided to play it to 144.72, 50% of the gap (the red horizontal lines). My sell order got filled at that price. Gain: $1,275."
On Friday, given the breakout in the QLD, I was more confident about the 148.67 target getting MADE. It did, and I sold FSLR right there. Gain: $2,825.
The bullish case for the GLD improved on Thursday when the 88.45 pivot of the "W"-Bottom, or Double Bottom (synonymous) got taken out. The pivot is the little candle circled in red.
The bullish case improved even more on Thursday when the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge got taken out, intraday. Friday morning, the top of the Wedge came in at 89.04. The GLD was called Gap Up, so I place a buy order right there. It opened at 89.10 and rallied, so I didn't think that I'd get filled, but I did on a pullback.
I was busy wanting to get long FSLR at the open, but in retrospect (hindsight always is 20/20) it would have been MUCH better to get long the GDX, which rallied about 6%. The GDX rallied only about 1%. Oh, well...I'm happy to have made anything at all after scratching my head over the GLD charts recently. LOL. I sold it near the end of the day. Gain: $375.
I shorted JOYG again for the reasons that I cited earlier in the week. At least I got back the $275 that I lost in it on Wednesday ;) Gain: $550
Gain on the session: $3,725. Gain on the week: $7,350. Two-week gain: $22,850.
Hopefully, these posts the last two weeks have been instructive on the patterns, targets, actual plays, etc. I'll continue to post them once in awhile, but not on a daily basis, which takes a good bit of extra time. Again, the basic idea is to have a plan, try to set up good risk:reward plays, and to manage our money well.
7 comments:
Melf, I don't know, why you are not as popular as other bloggers, but for me , personally , you are the best technician around, and you post your actual trades. Thank you.
dimitry,
Thank you for your very kind remarks. I make an effort just to "be decent" at this game that we all love, so you can imagine how much you made my day.
I am born with a stellium in the sign of Leo, and they are posited in the 5th House of Leo (house of speculation, and practically DYING for everyone's approval). LOL.
In addition, my Ascendant (chart ruler) is Aries, ruled by Mars, "God of War." Highly competitive.
Fortunately, I also was born with the Pisces Moon, at 28 degrees. If I were born a few hours later, I probably would have been ALL fire, and would have wanted the proverbial "brass ring" in the WORST way.
That Pisces Moon has felt like the biggest curse I ever could imagine, because I'm a male, and it's "sweet,"and "psychic/intuitive" and "service to others." Get outta here with that! LOL.
Through my life journey, I have come to be totally grateful for the Pisces Moon. I have come to understand that my life is NOT "all about ME." It's about others.
If anything that I post helps others, I'm am grateful. I have been much too selfish and inattentive to others in this incarnation, and VERY much would lide to correct that.
My lack of popularity as a technical analysts only confirms that for me. My "Leo energy" wants way-y to much to stand in the spotlight, and shine.
ENOUGH with tha-at nonsense.
Thank you, dimitry.
Melf, thanks for your analysis. Your blog is slowly becoming one of my very favorites. I think slowly because as I gain more experience, I learn to recognize excellence better :)
I'm Leo too. Don't know anything beside that . Was born on 20/08/64.
Susannah,
You're a sweetheart. Thank you. Just this morning, I was thinking of our conversation a month ago, about the five 90% up days, coming off the March low. That turned into six 90% up days shortly after our converstation.
Those readings certainly did presage a very good rally, eh?
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Dimitry,
Hey, our Leo suns make us kindred spirits of sorts ;)
It is said that our sun signs represent who we are at our core, but we all express our energy quite differently.
Among many things, Leo represents creativity, romance, speculation, children, entertainment, and generally, FUN ;)
Reinforcing the creativity in your particular birth chart is the fact that you've got Mars and Venus 2 degrees conjunct in the sign of Cancer (wonderful balance of "animus/amima" energy) and the fact that they are trine (most positive aspect) Neptune. That's not only a very creative, artitistic energy (along with your Leo Sun), it's a very nurturing, caring, understanding and compassionate energy. Think of "artistic" in the broadest sense of the word. You might not be able to paint, for expample, but you might play a musical instrument, or something of that sort.
You've got a stellium (three planets, or more) next door to Leo, in Virgo, which a very analytical, detail-oriented energy. The fact that one of the planets involved in that stellium is Mercury emphasizes that energy because Mercury is the ruler of Virgo and is in its dignity (functions very well) when its posited in that sign.
One of the other planets involved in your stellium is Pluto, which is a very intense, "in depth" energy.
Astrology doesn't dictate anything, or make us be one way or the other. It "inclines." With that Leo Sun (speculation) you've got, and that stellium you've got in "analytical" Virgo, and with all of that creative energy involving Mars/Venus trine Neptune in water signs (intuitive and sensitive), it surprises me that YOU aren't the one writing about technical analysis ;)
Or, do you?! LOL.
Thank you for your astro assessment ,Melf. May be , I should spend more time with TA. For now I'm trying to identify the best of net and spy on them. I like to built big picture from small pieces, fished everywhere.
Dimitry,
Happy fishing ;)
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