IBM, FSLR And JOYG

From yesterday:

"I also realized that shorting IBM, at all, was a mistake. If anything, I should have gotten long the open, with a stop below the channel. I played what I thought IBM was going to do, rather than what it is doing."

In the Comment Section a week ago, Mark asked me if I reviewed my losing trades as well as my winning trades, to see where I went wrong on the losers (paraphrased). Boy, I sure do! Probably more so on the losers than on the winners, so that I can make an effort not to repeat the same mistake. I still do dumb things, though :(

Knowing that IBM is acting bullish, I tried to get long it yesterday morning at 101.01, just above the 101.00 target that was IN PLAY from this Rectangle breakdown when I saw that IBM (and everything else) was called down at the open.

Math:

102.48 - Highs of the pattern
101.74 - The more conservative of the 101.74 and 101.72 lows

102.48 - 101.74 = 0.74 points of downside from a breakdown

101.74 - 0.74 = Target: 101.00 IN PLAY

Evidently, Ms. Market intends to punish me for my poor play of IBM on Tuesday because yesterday's low was only 101.06, and I didn't get filled on my order to Buy at 101.01. Lord, she can be a cruel mistress. LOL.


Also from yesterday:

"I played what I thought IBM was going to do, rather than what it is doing. What IBM "is doing," is still acting bullish, still within the channel, and still with TWO upside targets IN PLAY."

Yep. The 103.32 Rectangle target (pattern in blue) got MADE yesteday.


In FSLR, I liked Tuesday's gap fill of 135.69 left on the chart from April 8. Tuesday's low was 135.60, and that low also established Data Point #4 for a possible Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green).


In addition to the Symmetrical Triangle in the daily chart, basis the intraday chart, FSLR had formed this Ascending Triangle, with highs of 142.38 and 142.33. A breakout would put a target of 149.06 IN PLAY.

Math:

142.33 - the more conservative of the two highs
135.60 - the low, and the gap fill from April 8

142.33 - 135.60 = 6.73 points of upside on a breakout

142.33 + 6.73 = Target: 149.06 IN PLAY

FSLR opened down, had a nominal breakout to 142.60, sold off to 140.13, then came on again. I got long at 142.13 on that second rally. Although 149.06 was IN PLAY when FSLR broke out again, given that the general market has broken those Bearish Rising Wedges that we've all been watching, I wasn't going to be that ambitious with my upside target. I decided to play it to 144.72, 50% of the gap (the red horizontal lines). My sell order got filled at that price. Gain: $1,275.

I was real happy with that, until I saw...

... that the Ascending triangle target of 149.06 actually did get MADE. Sheesh. Isn't greed a terrible thing? LOL.


JOYG broke out of a Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green) that failed, and appears to have "morphed" (changed) into a Bear Flag/Rising Channel (pattern in blue). In early trading yesterday, the stock rallied to 24.43, filling the gap in the chart (horizontal red lines) entirely. On the selloff to Blue Data Point #4, my 13/21RSIs had a bearish cross. Yesterday's gap-filling rally likely would put them at Bearish Synchronicity (it did), meaning that yesterday's low of 22.665 becomes a sell pivot from that particular indicator.

I shorted JOYG at 24.04, after the gap fill, with a stop above the morning gap-filling high of 24.43. I thought about using 25.27 as a stop, the high of the last white candle before the gap down, but didn't want that much risk. A stop out above 24.43 would be a loss of $1,000. The reward would be much better than that if JOYG sold off, and took out the 22.665 low.

JOYG didn't selloff much from my entry, although the general market did have a selloff, and the stock kept coming back in my face. What I really didn't like was...

...Uh-oh...the fact that JOYG was holding up well suggested that this Symmetrical Triangle was going to break out to the upside, which increased the likelihood that I'd get stopped out. Prior to the breakout above 24.11-24.12, which is where the BID and ASK were, I decided to throw it in "at the market." I think that my Buy to Cover order caused the breakout, because I got filled at breakout prices of 24.14 and 24.15 LOL. Loss: $275.

As it turns out, JOYG rallied to 24.545 on the Symmetrical Triangle breakout, so I would have been stopped out for a $1,000 loss instead of the $275 loss, so I felt good about that, but then JOYG sold off and closed at 23.61, so I would have been fine if I had used a higher stop.

"Coulda...shoulda...woulda..."

As far as I'm concerned, though, it's all about risk:reward, and money management. I made a business decision to risk only $1,000 on that trade with a very reasonable stop above the 24.43 gap-filling high, so I don't at all regret that decision.

"Some ya win...some ya lose."

In addition to the morph in the daily chart from a Symmetrical Triangle to a Bear Flag/Rising Channel, I'm wondering if that entire pattern isn't morphing into this possible H&S Top.

FSLR trade.

JOYG trade. Gain on the session: $1,000.