The H&S Top target of 29.66 got MADE in the early going yesterday.
Math for the target:
35.47 - High of The Head
32.53 - Where the neckline was when the high of The Head got put in
35.47 - 32.53 = 2.94 points of downside on a neckline break, which occurred below 32.60.
32.60 - 2.94 = Target: 29.66 IN PLAY
When targets get MADE, that only tells us that that particular move is finished. The stock can change direction at/near the target, or simply continue in the same direction. Our job is to try to follow, and see what eventuates.
Notice the little candle of St. Paddy's Day that is (appropriately) circled in green. That was a "pivot candle" during the Double Bottom formation. A number of the RSIs had come into Bullish Synchronicity, and the MACD was ready to go through its signal line, after putting in a positive divergence in its histogram. When the 29.19 high of that "pivot candle" got taken out in the next session, GG moved higher and also took out the 30.85 pivot of the Double Bottom, or "W"-Bottom (synonymous), putting a target of 35.53 IN PLAY.
Math for the Double Bottom target:
30.85 - The high at the middle of the "W."
26.17 - The more conservative of the 26.17 and 26.15 bottoms.
30.85 - 26.17 = 4.68 points of upside on a breakout above 30.85.
30.85 + 4.68 = Target: 35.53 IN PLAY.
That target got MADE, within six cents. The high of the March 26 Doji Star Hangman at the Morph line was 35.47.
In yesterday's selloff, after the H&S Top target of 29.66 got MADE, GG went down to 29.20 in the first five minutes of trading, a penny above the St. Paddy's Day pivot high, and bounced to 29.79. At 10:05AM, GG sold off again, and bounced off 29.17, two pennies below the St. Paddy's Day pivot high.
Hmm-mm...that was looking like support there.
As trading progressed, we can see in the 5-Minute chart that a Symmetrical Triangle formed after the 29.20 and 29.17 lows of the early morning got put in. After Data #4 was established, I got long GG at 29.64, just prior to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout. Stop: 29.43, below the low of Data Point #4.
The Symmetrical Triangle broke out above 29.65, putting a target of 30.27 IN PLAY.
Math for the Symmetrical Triangle:
29.79 - High
29.17 - Low
29.79 - 29.17 = 0.62 points of upside on a breakout above 29.65.
29.65 + 0.62 = Target: 30.27 IN PLAY.
GG rallied to a high of 30.28 at 12:10PM, which remained the high until late in the session, and the target got MADE. Since it was a breakout against the trend, I sold a little early, at 30.17.
Gain: $1,300.
Combined with last week's gain of $4,300, that puts me at a gain of $5,600 in GG which is nice, but in retrospect, given the number of "Tells" that we got at the top, I "shoulda" held some shares short and not covered all of it at the 31.76 gap fill on Friday, playing it for a re-entry short on a retest of the 32.31-32.32 bottom of the little Rectangle/Double Bottom in the five minute chart, which never occurred.
"Coulda ...shoulda ...woulda." Don't we ALL have those? LOL.
Go back and look at the first chart. Here were "The Tells:"
1. Failure at the Ascending Triangle Morph Line.
2. Failure at the Morph Line, on a Doji Star Hangman.
3. Bear Flag formation.
4. Bear Flag morph into a H&S Top (Bear Flags and Bearish Rising Wedges are notorious for doing that).
5. Right Shoulder failure at 34.83, just below the 34.93 Gap from the Doji Star Hangman close.
6. Rectangle/Double Bottom (32.31-32.31 lows) in the 5-Minute chart that got taken down on Friday, along with the 32.50-32.57 neckline of the H&S Top.
Ms. Market gave us A LOT of "Tells" about that top.
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