From yesterday:
"On the downside, the broken H&S Top in the 10-Minute chart put roughly NASDAQ 1600 IN PLAY (1660-1630 = 30 points of downside from the break below 1630)."
NASDAQ 1600 got MADE late in the session.
The NASDAQ gapped down on INTC's earnings, but bottomed very quickly around 1607. In the 1-Minute chart, the QID was looking like a Bear Flag, so I sold my positions at 42.65 and looked to enter a third time on a move to fill the opening gap.
The Bear Flag broke down, which put roughly QID 42.05 IN PLAY. I bought back my postions again at 42.08. The NASDAQ fell to 1602, then rallied again. The SPX was holding up very well, refusing to break much below the low 840's, so I sold again at 42.68 and was very glad that I did when I saw the rally into the close.
Gain on the two re-entries: $6,100. Total gain on the QID play: $10,400.
4 comments:
Congrats on your sharp series of trades. I am in awe of your ability to identify these patterns. Do you review your poor trades as well and figure out where you went awry?
Mark,
Yes, I analyze losing trades as well as winning trades.
For example, in this QID trade, the H&S Top in the NASDAQ clearly broke down below the 1631-1630 neckline. It rallied back above the neckline, to 1635, then failed.
Remember that I said that if 1635 got taken out to the upside, I would throw it in and keep half my $4,300 gain? The response to INTC's earnings "could have been" good, and 1635 "could have" got taken out to the upside. If it had, my view would have been that the H&S Top "probably" wasn't valid and that I needed to throw it in because I would have had no idea what the NASDAQ was doing, other than "going up," and I was short via the QID! LOL.
"When in doubt, get OUT!" Especially when my H&S Top thesis would have gone wrong.
melf
qid gap 41.7-42.5 from this morning will get filled. market gaps up tomorrow in light of goog earnings. then qid is setting up to be good buy post op-ex day
thanks for your work and sharing.
linus
Good Morning, Linus,
You're very welcome.
This area would seem like a nice place for a pullback, near the January-February highs of SPX 875-877 and the SPX, eh? The SPX also looks to be forming a Bearish Rising Wedge. We'll see if we get it.
Good luck!
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