From yesterday morning, in the Comment Section:
"Basis the daily chart in GG, the 144/233RSI's just gave a Buy Signal on the print of 34.20, a penny above yesterday's high of 34.19, which is a "Buy Pivot," so that's looking bullish. Yesterday's low of 32.57 would be the stop loss for that particular signal, and a print below 32.57 also would break the putative 32.50-32.57 neckline, so we'll see on that, too.
I'm not going to short it today since that's looking pretty strong."
GG still is looking like a H&S Top. The 34.89 high of the Left Shoulder wasn't taken out yesterday, although it was close. The high on the session was 34.83. The volume also looks right for a H&S Top: highest in the Left Shoulder, next highest in the Head, then lowest in the Right Shoulder. The Left Shoulder should be wider than the Right Shoulder and so far, that's alright, but GG would need to break the neckline fairly soon.
Yesterday's action in the HUI, though, was much stronger than the action in GG.
The HUI took out the high of its possible H&S top and closed above the top of the putative Bearish Wolfe Wave! While that still "could be" some sort of upside fakeout, I'm not going to assume that. I'd have to see it get reversed to the downside.
The GDX had a strong day, but it didn't make a new high with the HUI, so that's a non-confirmation at this point. Prior to the HUI moving to a new high yesterday, it looked like the GDX at least would fill the 35.15 gap which I would like to have seen, but Ms. Market doesn't do what Melf would like. LOL. The GDX simply could break out from here and leave that gap unfilled.
Overall in the GDX, this a nice 8-month base for an upside breakout into the 39's, and above. The 50 day moving average made a bullish cross above the 200 day moving average on March 24, so it's good to go from that standpoint. We'll see if it can confirm the breakout in the HUI.
EDIT: In the GDX, note the Bearish Rising Wedge pattern, in red. "Rule of Thumb" when the pattern breaks down is that it will return to the bottom of the wedge, or very close to that. There's no "always" with these things, and this is a good example of that. The GDX got only to 29.25, well above the 27.15 low of the wedge, then went into the Bull Flag pattern, in blue. When the Bull Flag broke out to the upside, it trumped the Bearish Rising Wedge target of 27.15.
2 comments:
Melf,
On the GDX chart, I see a series of bull flags dating from Oct-Nov. Isn't that the dominating pattern?
Good Morning, Mark,
Beginning in October:
Pattern #1 in Blue is a Symmetrical Triangle. The trendlines eventually will converge.
Pattern #2 in Black is a Bullish Falling Wedge. Downward-sloping trendlines. The TOP trendline is particularly sharp.
Pattern #3 in Purple is a Bear Flag. The "flagpole" is the rally off the low of the Bullish Rising Wedge. The trendlines of the Bear Flag are nearly parallel, and they trend upwards, in the SAME direction as the "flagpole," but the implication is bearish, even though the pattern trends higher. The stock is running out of momentum, particularly if volume wanes during the formation of the flag.
Confirmation of the bearishness is when the pattern broke to the downside, but that was negated when the GDX rallied back above the bottom of the pattern, retested and found support at the bottom of the flag three days later, then rallied. The breakdown of this Bear Flag turned out to be a Bear Trap.
Pattern #4 in Green is another Symmetrical Triangle, or "pennant." After the rally off the 27.15 low, it looks like a "pennant."
Pattern #5 in Red is a Bearish Rising Wedge. Both trendlines points up. Opposite Pattern #2, The Bullish Falling Wedge, the BOTTOM trendline in this pattern has a sharp upward slope.
Pattern #6 in Blue is a Bull Flag. The trendlines are nearly parallel, and pointing down. The "flagpole" is the drop coming off the Bearish Rising Wedge, and it's upside down, so to speak. The Bull Flag is formed in the SAME direction as the flagpole, just like the Bear Flag formed, only the implication is reversed: this pattern is bullish.
I hope I got all of that right. Market is opening, so no time to proofread. Sorry for any mistakes.
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