Friday, March 18, 2011

BIDU: The Bulls vs. The Bears



(Click On Charts To Enlarge, then click on them again for further enlargement. Use left arrow at the top of your screen to return to the narrative)

From yesterday morning's post:

"For trading purposes, the breakdown of the H&S Top OR the rally back to the broken neckline in the low 122.00's was an excellent place to short BIDU. The stop loss on the trade would be a move above the Right Shoulder of the pattern, which is where you would "Buy To Cover" your short position, and take a loss."

They stuck it to The Bears at the open, sending BIDU back above the neckline (horizontal yellow line) of the H&S Top, AND one penny above the high of the Right Shoulder, which was 123.08. The early morning high was 123.09! That's called a "stop buster" when a stop is taken out only nominally, meaning by a penny or three. Bears who shorted Wednesday's breakdown of the neckline, or who shorted the two failed retests of that neckline late Wednesday afternoon had a problem on their hands. Do they cover their short position on that "nominal" (in name only) print of 123.09, above the high of the Right Shoulder, or do they hope that BIDU goes down and fills the gap from Wednesday's close?

That's an individual call on the part of each trader. In this particular case, The Bears did get a selloff from that 123.09 high, but the gap wasn't filled completely, and BIDU was back in their faces, as we will see in the following 1-minute chart.



After the selloff toward the gap, BIDU went into consolidation mode, forming a Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in white). Notice the white down arrow. When BIDU sold off from there, that was a trendline validation, meaning that Ms. Market was telling us, "Yes, that IS resistance." BIDU wasn't able to rally up thru that trendline at that point.

When a validated trendline does get taken out, that usually has "some" significance. After BIDU sold off to White #4, completing the bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle, it took out that upper trendline then went into another little triangle formation (the one in yellow).

At the yellow down arrows, there were a couple/few trendline validations. Ms. Market again was telling us, "Yes, that IS resistance." When the triangle in yellow broke out, that was a second Bullish pattern breakout and we can see that it did have "some" significance. BIDU got a nice little pop to the upside.

I had purchased it for 122.25 during the white Symmetrical Triangle formation and I "sold into strength" at 123.80 after the yellow Symmetrical Triangle broke out. Glad that I did. The session high of 123.95 came in about a minute after I sold, and BIDU traded with a downward bias for the remainder of the session, closing at 121.64, below my 122.25 entry.



Gain: $1,550.



BIDU has been a nice trading stock. While it's had some tradeable moves both up and down since the 112.95 low several weeks ago, it essentially has "traded sideways." It hasn't broken down along with most of the general market, but it hasn't regained the gap (horizontal red line) and moved higher, either.

It's the proverbial "Bull vs. Bear" struggle, with BIDU currently parked in the "Neutral Zone," below the gap, but above the lower trendline of the white Ascending Triangle.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

BIDU: Head & Shoulders Top


The breakout of four bullish patterns on Tuesday resulted in a rally yesterday morning of nearly three points, to 125.09, which was very impressive given that the general market was down hard again. The session high was again below the gap (see next chart). Although BIDU remained in the green for most of the morning, it finally succumbed to downward pressure as the market took another beating yesterday.

In this 10-Minute chart, we can see that a Head & Shoulders Top formed and that The Bears were able to break it to the downside, sending BIDU to a session low of 119.41, five and a half points below the session high, so score one for The Bears.

The Bulls staged another rally of nearly three points and managed to put BIDU back into positive territory on the session and were able to take the stock back above the broken neckline twice, but the Bears ultimately were able to defend and were able to smack BIDU out of there (the two yellow arrows). Score another one for the Bears.

The downside target for the H&S Top is roughly 118.80, which is the height of the pattern, subtracted from the neckline break. The Bears got most of that yesterday, at the 119.41 low.

For trading purposes, the breakdown of the H&S Top OR the rally back to the broken neckline in the low 122.00's was an excellent place to short BIDU. The stop loss on the trade would be a move above the Right Shoulder of the pattern, which is where you would "Buy To Cover" your short position, and take a loss. You would "Buy To Cover" the short position and take profits at or near the 118.80 target, so taking at least "some" profits on the selloff to 119.41 would have been a real nice play.

Let's look again at the Hourly Chart.




The Bears not only want the 118.80 target to get MADE, they very much want to break the Ascending Triangle (pattern in white) to the downside by breaking that rising trendline and, particularly, by taking out the 118.00 low at Green #2.

The Bulls want to turn the "possible" Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in green) into an upside breakout. They've got some room between yesterday's close of 120.56 and the rising trendline of the White Ascending Triangle, so they can afford to allow The Bears their 118.80-ish target, but they need to hold that trendline. That comes in today at 118.986, basis the daily chart. If BIDU heads down there and that trendline gets broken by just a little bit in order for that target to get MADE, that's alright as long as The Bulls take control right there, and reverse the stock higher.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

BIDU: Four More Bullish Patterns



(Click on charts to enlarge, then click again for further enlargement. Use back arrow at the top of your browser to return to the narrative).

After BIDU rallied to 121.45 off the opening low at 118.00, I made a stupid play, which I call "the vengeance trade." I was annoyed that my order at 118.32 didn't get filled, so I decided to buy BIDU if it retraced 50% of the opening rally from 118.00 to 121.42, which was 119.71. That play isn't entirely stupid because it often works, but the market was down hard on the morning and the logical stop loss would be below the morning low of 118.00 for a loss of $1,700 if I got stopped out.

BIDU continued lower after I bought it and I had a paper loss of roughly $800. UGH. When the stock rallied, I sold it at 119.75 for a tiny gain, then "got a grip." Especially in a market that is tanking, like we have been this week, it's better to wait for good opportunities based on good technicals, which I found yesterday afternoon.

Coming off the session high of 123.27 (upper left), BIDU formed a Falling Wedge, the pattern in white in the above chart. Then it formed an Ascending Triangle, the pattern in yellow, and broke out of that and went up to the red line, which set up a "possible" neckline (horizontal red line) for a Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders, which would be Bullish Pattern #3.

I bought BIDU at 122.27 on the pullback from that putative neckline, to the highs of the Ascending Triangle (horizontal yellow line). That was a MUCH higher entry than my original order at 118.32 that didn't get filled (Curses!), but we can't be afraid to take advantage of a solid opportunity, even if we have to "pay up" to get it. My stop loss was below the low of the Ascending Triangle (pattern in yellow), so not a lot of risk in the trade.

BIDU then formed the Right Shoulder of the Bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders (pattern in red) and broke out of it, then form Bullish pattern #4, the Bull Flag (pattern in green).

As we have discussed so many times in the past, when we get "nested" patterns (in this case, four bullish patterns), the breakout can be powerful. As we can see, when BIDU broke out of the Bull Flag (pattern in green), it rocketed straight up toward the session high of 123.27, which is what the breakout suggested. I "sold into strength," at 123.07, not wanting to hold the position overnight. The aftenoon high was 123.10, so I darned near caught the high. BIDU closed at 122.23, four cents below my entry, so it paid off to "sell into strength."



Gain on the two trades: $800.

Despite BIDU's bullish behavior in a lousy market environment, there's always a "Bear Case," so let's look at that.



The argument for The Bears is that the rally off the low at Yellow #1 has been nothing more than a snapback Rising Channel (pattern in yellow) rally to close the gap (solid red line). The recent rally failed just below that red line, then BIDU sank all-ll the way back to the bottom of the pattern (yellow arrow) at yesterday's open.

Yesterday's 118.00 low at that yellow arrow is called a "trendline validation." Ms. Market told us very clearly, "Yes, that IS support" when BIDU banged off there and rallied more than five points higher on the session.

Yesterday's rally, however, "could have been" nothing more than a snapback, gap-filling rally, back toward Monday's close. Bottom line: I view that lower rising trendline as important support. If yesterday's 118.00 low gets taken out to the downside, that would give a strong suggestion that BIDU will head down toward the low of this Rising Channel, at 112.95.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

BIDU: Support Levels



(Click on charts to enlarge)

BIDU was called much lower before the open this morning, along with the general market. When that occurs, we want to identify levels of support and watch to see what happens.

To the far right of this chart, you'll see numbers 1 thru 6, identifying support:

#1 is the top of the larger pattern, in white. That didn't hold yesterday, but BIDU closed back above it yesterday.

#2 is the neckline of the Inverse Head & Shoulders (horizontal yellow line)

#3 is the low of the Right Shoulder of the H&S pattern, which was 119.25 (horizontal red line).

#4 is the rising trendline off the 112.95 low. It's at 118.23 today.

#5 is the low of the head of the Inverse H&S pattern, at 117.10

#6 is the low of the entire pattern, at 112.95.

Just before 9:00AM, a half an hour before the opening, look where BIDU was indicated to open:



BIDU is circled, bottom left. The indication was right at Support level #3, 119.25. By the time the stock opened, it took that out to the downside, so I entered a buy order at 118.30, just above Support Level #4, at 118.23.

Unfortunately, due to heavy trading in fast market conditions...look what happened to my order.




It took a few extra HUNDREDTHS of a second for their danged computer to get with it and accept my order, but that cost me a good trade. The order didn't get filled. UGH. I hate it when that happens ;)



BIDU bottomed at 118.00 during the first minute of trading, then went on an upside screamer thru Support Level #3, at 119.25, and continued up to Support Level #2, the neckline of the Inverse H&S, in the mid-121's. The high thus far this morning off the 118.00 is 121.45.

So-o frustrating not to get my order filled after a lot of preparation for the trade, but that's all part of the game that we know and love.

I don't love it this morning :(

Monday, March 14, 2011

Baidu (BIDU): Two Bullish Patterns



(Click on charts to enlarge, then click on the charts again for further enlargement. Use back arrow at the top of your browser to return to the narrative).

When markets are called lower, as they were today on the terrible disaster in Japan, it isn't a good idea to leaping into stocks that are selloffs, especially into stocks that already are broken to the downside, but sharp selloffs often provide buying opportunities in stocks that are acting bullish, like Baidu (BIDU).

We can see from this hourly chart that the stock had a DOUBLE breakout to the upside on Friday: Pattern #1, in white, is an Ascending Triangle; Pattern #2, in yellow, is a bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern. On a selloff, the tops of those patterns are possible areas of support.

The top of the Ascending Triangle (horizontal white line) didn't provide support today, but the neckline of the Bullish Inverse H&S did.







We can see in the 10-Minute chart that when BIDU broke out of the Bullish Inverse H&S pattern (white arrow), it went on a four dollar rampage to the upside, much of which is caused by short sellers being caught out of position and being forced to cover by buying. Longs are buying the technical upside breakout, and shorts also are buying to get out of a losing position. The proverbial everyone is a buyer, and the buying begets more buying as the stock rockets higher.

Friday's breakout rally was pretty much parabolic (straight up), and those rallies often get "called back" because there isn't any base-building during the rally. Straight up ... then straight down, as we see in this chart.

BIDU found support today just above the neckline (horizontal white line in this chart), at the yellow arrow. Shorts who didn't cover the upside technical breakout on Friday were given another chance to "buy to cover" their short position on that selloff. If they didn't cover, they got squeezed again to the upside during afternoon trading.

Prior to the Bullish Inverse H&S breakout on Friday, the NASDAQ had begun to rally, but BIDU looked stalled out below the breakout. I sold my long position for a break even trade, just minutes before the upside breakout. UGH. I hate it when that happens ;)

I took a few stabs at buying BIDU today and came out alright, so that made up a little for not participating in Friday afternoon's stunning rally.




Gain: $1,750.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

Morgan Stanley (MS)




From February 18:

"MS still is trading within the Rising Wedge (pattern in blue), so the upside target of 31.25 still is IN PLAY, but I sold it at the close when it got back to Unchanged on the day because its performance was poor basis the benchmark S&P 500..."

MS fell shy of the 31.25 target that has been IN PLAY since December 22, 2011. It got only to 31.04, then after telegraphing some weakness mentioned a week ago, it gapped down on February 22, broke Trendline #2-#4 of the Rising Wedge (pattern in blue) and closed below it.

After a technical breakdown of a Rising Wedge, the initial target is the area of the low, at Blue #2, which was 28.75. MS fell to within range of that, to 26.865, and currently is rallying to retest the Rising Wedge breakdown.

Friday, February 18, 2011

Morgan (MS) & S&P 500 (SPX)


NOTE: Click on charts to enlarge, then click on it again for further enlargement. Use left back arrow to get back to the narrative.

MS still is trading within the Rising Wedge (pattern in blue), so the upside target of 31.25 still is IN PLAY, but I sold it at the close when it got back to Unchanged on the day because its performance was poor basis the benchmark S&P 500, which recovered from the morning selloff and had an upside technical breakout. Stocks don't "have to" perform in tandem with the general market, but I'm not pleased when I'm long a stock that languishes all day when the general market it rallying.



The two charts to the right are 10 Minute intraday charts of the S&P 500 (SPX) and Morgan Stanley (MS). The white arrows on both charts are the lows in each on the morning selloff. Notice that the SPX made a "higher low" at #4, then broke out of the triangle to the upside. MS made a "lower low" at #4 and barely made it back to breakeven on the session. UGH.

I also made a play yesterday in sector-related Goldman Sachs (GS), figuring that if the market was showing some juice (meaning that the S&P 500 had broken out of its triangle to upside), Goldman would at least have a decent bounce off its session low. It was no good. Goldman barely budged when the market rallied, so I sold it, too, for a small gain. Goldman was weak into the close and sold off toward its session low.

Gain on Goldman: $150. Gain on Morgan: $250 (entry posted yesterday). Gain on the session: $400.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Morgan Stanley (MS) - Channel & Rising Wedge


NOTE: Click on charts to enlarge, then click on it again for further enlargement. Use left back arrow to get back to the narrative.

The channel in black in late 2010 is an excellent illustration of the significance of trendlines and how they provide resistance and support. We can connect any two highs or any two lows and call that a trendline, but we never know if it's a significant trendline unless/until it gets tested. The top of this pattern (Trendline #1 -#3) has a total of FIVE trendline validations, two red and three green. See my comments about those on the chart.



After the Channel breakout, MS formed a Rising Wedge, the pattern in blue. Both trendlines are rising and eventually will "meet up with each other" at some point in the future. Rising Wedges are said to be bearish, but they aren't always bearish. How can we tell if it is, or not?

Bearish Case: The high at Blue #3 is 30.87, not far from the 31.25 target that is IN PLAY from the 12-22-10 upside Channel breakout. Yesterday's high was 30.84. If MS should reverse to the downside here and (1) trade below the bottom of the pattern (Trendline #2-#4), (2) trade below the first horizontal red line, at 29.83, and (3) trade below the low at Blue #4, which was 29.50, odds would be good that MS is going to have a move to the downside.

Bullish Case: (1) the 31.25 target from the December breakout still is IN PLAY, (2) the 21 RSI (Relative Strength Indicator) gave back-to-back Buy Signals on February 11 and February 15, and, (3) the top of the pattern, Blue Trendline #1-#3, will be at 31.23 today, February 17, very near the 31.25 target. It will be interesting to see if that target eventually gets MADE, or at least reasonably approximated.



I've made a couple of daytrades in MS and was able to get back in it yesterday at 30.45, after a selloff from the morning high of 30.84. 30.45 was the February 15 high, so it was resistance. Yesterday afternoon, it provided support on the selloff. MS held at 30.44, then rallied into the close.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

AMZN, FSLR And TIE



NOTE: After you click on a chart and it appears, you can click on it again and it will enlarge. Use your left arrow at the top of your screen to get back to the narrative.

AMZN is a favorite of the short sellers and at various market junctures, the stock has squeezed them half to death. After reporting disappointing earnings after the closing bell in late January, AMZN traded as low as the $150's in after-hours trading, but it never traded that low during regular market hours. The low was 166.90 the morning after earnings were reported and the short sellers were immediately caught in a "Bear Trap," thinking that the stock had turned bearish and that it was headed much lower. Nope...

After an inside trading session the following day (meaning that the high and low were contained with the prior day's trading range), AMZN began its short squeeze. Often on internet web sites and message boards, we will read that someone is shorting a stock because it has been up for five consecutive days, or six days, or seven days, or eight days...which is not a good reason for shorting a stock.

AMZN has closed higher for TEN days in a row, and yesterday, it got to within twenty cents of its January high! While it might be tempting (and even reasonable, with a tight stop-loss above the highs) to short AMZN here, looking for a Double Top at 191.60 (the January 18th high) and 191.40 (yesterday's high), we don't want to fool around with shorting a stock that is in a bullish trend if those highs get taken out to the upside. Witness: FSLR, as just one of many examples of why we don't want to do that (see the next chart).

FSLR broke down out of the large Rising Wedge (the patten in blue) on October 29. That was fine to short it there, or to short the Bear Flag rally (the second red pattern) back to the broken trendline. The Rising Wedge (pattern in blue) also contained a Double Top. The breakdown put a downside target of 125.18 IN PLAY, which got MADE on November 17.

Where the Bears really got into trouble shorting, or staying short FSLR, was at the upside breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in purple) on January 16, 2011. On January 24, FSLR rallied back to, and closed above, the October high of 153.30. Uh-oh! The Bears who didn't cover their short positions on that move to a new high got a reprieve over the next few sessions when FSLR sold off, but it came roaring back and squeezed the shorts. It made a new high yesterday of 172.30. That's 19 points higher than the October high. While that "could be" a significant high that FSLR put in yesterday, just as anything "could be"... OUCH if you're caught short a rally like that.

So, back to AMZN...shorts DON'T want to see the 191.60 and 191.40 highs get taken out to the upside!



Titanium Metals (TIE) has been a bit of a devil to play since it broke out of the large Falling Wedge (pattern in blue) to the upside on January 16th. Four upside targets went IN PLAY on the breakout (listed on the chart), but TIE has had some very sharp pullbacks since the breakout.

I've played in and out of it a couple of times, last selling it in the 18.90s (see prior posts). I bought it back significantly higher last week, at 19.58 (forgot to capture a screen shot of the buy trade), because the upside targets still were IN PLAY and because TIE kept bouncing back from the sharp selloffs. The 34/55 Fibonacci RSI's (Relative Strength Indicator) also gave another Buy Signal at 19.53 late last week.

As I always say, "Take profits, or at least 'some' profits when targets get MADE." TIE finally got to Target #1, 19.95 in the early going yesterday. I considered selling only half of my position when that was achieved, but since TIE has had so many rather sharp pullbacks since the breakout, I decided to cash all of my shares in and planned to buy it back on a pullback. No luck with that strategy, which is fine. "A gain is a gain" and I'm always grateful for them. TIE was strong all session long, and went directly to target #2, 20.55.

Oh, well...


Sold at 19.93. Gain: just under $700.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Goldman Sachs (GS) - H&S Top #2



The little H&S Top pattern in white is the one from Monday. As we discussed, it broke to the downside, but it reversed and took out the high of the Right Shoulder, then the high of the head and went on to score a new high on the session.

So often, patterns "morph," or change, into something else. As it turns out, that H&S Top pattern in white "morphed" into the Left Shoulder of the larger Head & Shoulders Top, in yellow. Once the larger pattern broke down, like on Monday, GS tried to get back above the neckline (the yellow arrow), but only succeeded marginally in do so. The retest of the neckline ultimately failed, and down she went.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Goldman Sachs (GS): A Head & Shoulders Top



Goldman (GS) broke out to the upside in December and the upside target of 174.80 from the October breakout got MADE. On the reporting of earnings in January, however, GS reversed back below the December breakout on a gap down.

Recently, GS has been rallying back to the area of the breakdown, which is the horizontal blue line, and also the January earnings gap area. When stocks are rallying back to a breakdown area, that "should be" resistance to any further upside advance and I look for shorting opportunities.



Early this morning, GS broke below a Head & Shoulders Top (pattern in white) basis this 10-Minute chart. I shorted it just below the breakdown. When that occurs, we don't want to see a stock rally back above the neckline (white horizontal line) if we're short, and we really don't want to see the stock get back above the high of the Right Shoulder (white arrow). If it does, that's showing much more strength than we want to see and it's usually wise to cover a short position, which is what I did. I covered a bit below the high of Right Shoulder for about a $550 loss.

When a trade doesn't work out, I find that one of most difficult things to do is to reverse and play the stock in the oppositie direction. We tend to fear having another loss, back-to-back, but if we have a well-founded basis for making our decisions, we can put fear aside and make the play.

After rallying back above the neckline and threatening to take out the high of the Right Shoulder, GS pulled back to the neckline area (166.78-166.84) and held pretty steady. Given the show of strength after the H&S Top breakdown, I bought GS at 166.84. My stop loss in case that trade also didn't work out was the morning low, at 166.26.

Fortunately, the second trade worked out fine. GS took out the high of the Right Shoulder (white arrow) and I "sold into strength" and turned my morning loss into an overall gain.

I took a break after I sold, so I didn't continue watching the chart, but look what GS did after I sold: It rallied to a new high on the day, then sold off and found support at the high of the Right Shoulder (yellow arrow)! That's very, very nice, technically. "Former resistance became support," just as it should, and GS went on to make another new high on the session, then cruised sideways into the close, consolidating the day's gains.



Gain on the two trades: Roughly $250.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

TIE - Business Decisions



I bought TIE last week for 18.68 (see real-time execution in last post) because I liked the chart and the technicals so well. Since the breakout, however, TIE has had a couple of sharp pullbacks, and it had a third sharp pullback today.



At the rally to 18.65 (the high of the triangle in this 10-Minute chart), I had a paper gain of nearly $1,000. "It ain't a gain until you sell." Basis this 10-minute chart, we can see that a Descending Triangle formed. It has descending highs and a flat bottom. It broke down this morning (see white arrow), putting a downside target of roughly 18.55 IN PLAY, below my 18.68 entry. UGH. TIE sold off to a low of 18.60, so my $1,000 paper gain not only evaporated, I was down $80. UGH.

Sharp selloffs really test one's mettle and the strength of one's conviction. Basis the daily chart, TIE still looked fine, but I had had enough of the sharp pullbacks and decided to sell TIE on any rally back toward this morning's Descending Triangle breakdown. I sold it at 18.91 and 18.92 for a gain of a little over $200.

Needless to say, I wasn't real happy to see TIE rally back above the bottom of the Descending Triangle (19.10) and CONTINUE to rally and go positive, closing at 19.37. UGH. That's the way the game is played "in real time," though. It's easy to see at the close that I would have been fine holding the position, but that's with the advantage of hindsight. I had spent a week working on TIE and at the 18.60 low this morning, I decided to move on to something more productive.



I shorted and covered a postion in Joy Global (JOYG), for a gain of $700+ in a couple of hours. That felt more productive ;)

Thursday, January 27, 2011

AMZN And TIE



AMZN broke out of a wide base (middle of the chart) early this morning. Often after putting in a high after that kind of run-up, a stock retraces 50% of the rally, then continues higher. AMZN pulled back and looked to be holding up very well near the 50% retracement level, so I bought it for a quick play. It rallied much more than I expected.

Earnings came out after the closing bell, however, and the stock was down as much as $20. As I've said many times in the past, earnings can go either way and I usually like to be flat heading into the report. In this particular case, I'm VERY glad to be flat AMZN. Yikes!



TIE had a sizeable give back after it broke out. These wedge patterns often are like that. Yesterday, it came on strong again. Today, it pulled back to the last Buy Signal at 18.70 basis the fibonacci RSI's, so I bought it. Upside targets on the chart still are IN PLAY.



AMZN gain: just under $1,200

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

AMZN: The Selloff



From January 20:

"AMZN rallied to the last of our upside targets, 191.50 (it got to 191.60), then sold off yesterday. Another of many examples why it's a good idea to "take at least 'some' profits when targets get MADE."

Update:

That final 191.50 target ended up being just ten cents below the recent high, prior to the selloff the past few days. AMZN has been trying to find some support here and put in a very narrow double bottom, or "W-bottom" early yesterday morning on the intraday chart and a possible Bullish Hammer on the daily chart.



After breaking out of the narrow Double Bottom early in the session (horizontal white bar), AMZN rallied to 177.00, then formed and broke out of a Symmetrical Triangle. After the breakout, it came back and successfully tested the breakout (first white arrow), then rallied again. Another triangle formed after that. I got in at 177.00, near the second white #4 and got another breakout to the upside and another successful retest of the breakout (the second white arrow). So far, so good.

AMZN rallied to 177.88 and looked like it would get to the short-term pattern targets at roughly 178.25 and 178.40, but we can see that the rallied fizzled going into the close.

177.13 was the low of the successful retest of the second triangle breakout. That "shouldn't have" gotten taken out, but it did, so I stopped my trade out right there.



Gain: $100. Paltry, but the patterns were there and the trade had a chance. Sometimes trades work and sometimes they don't. When they don't, stop it out and go back to the drawing board ;)

Monday, January 24, 2011

AGU - Resistance Levels



(Friday's trading is the right half of this 5-Minute chart)

From Friday morning:

"If, for example, they paid 89.62 for the stock and AGU rallies $2.00 to that price today, they will be thinking, "Okay, I can get outta this thing at a break even" and they will sell. That kind of selling causes RESISTANCE to upward movement in the price of the stock, particularly after it just has broken down."

Update:

We can see from the intraday chart that AGU opened higher at 88.98, three cents below Resistance Level 1, at 89.01, raced toward Resistance Level 2, then swooned immediately and went all the way back to Thursday's close. AGU mounted another rally attempt to Resistance Level 1, 89.01, but failed to get thru it and sold off going home. Players who didn't sell Thursday's breakdown at 90.65 (the top of the Falling Wedge in green), or below the low of the wedge (89.01) wanted out of it.



Although AGU closed higher on the day, it closed back below 89.01, the low of the Falling Wedge at Green #4. That low "shouldn't have" gotten taken out to the downside last Thursday, but it did.