Saturday, March 22, 2008

CROX and GLD: Two Wolfe Waves






(Click On Charts To Enlarge)




From March 12 re: CROX:




"If this ISN'T a Bullish Wolfe Wave, stop a long trade out if Friday's 18.08 low gets taken down."




18.08 got taken down in CROX, so I was stopped out for a loss. It's showing bullish divergences here in the MACD and the RSI's and likely will rally some on a "Double Fakeout" like GLD, but I'm always skeptical about bullish divergences with lousy price action (breaking below the lower trendline of the "possible" Bullish Wolfe Wave), so I'll leave it alone.




From March 2 re: GLD:




" The GLD opened at the top trendline. I shorted it just above there and covered when GLD rallied off 96.80. Possible Bullish Falling Wedge that might lead to a retest of the morning highs, so I took the money."




GLD was looking strong, and I suspected another push to the upside, which we got on March 5. That still looked strong with the POG rallying hard, so I let it alone, and didn't short it. The second upside "fakeout" didn't occur until March 17, then GLD finally came down hard. Tricky little devil. That's the hallmark of a Wolfe Wave. Fakes you out, and it sure did. I didn't play it, dang it.

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