Tuesday, June 17, 2008

XLF And BAC





(Click On Charts To Enlarge)

Off the March 17 low, the XLF formed the same Bearish Rising Wedge that the UYG did. When it broke down, that suggested at least a move down to Data Point #3, at 24.40, and likely a retest of the low of the pattern (22.29), which we've gotten. The XLF now has the possiblity of 3-month Double Bottom, which looks much better than the January 22 "spike low" off the Fed Rate cut, and there's nice Symmetry to it as well. The rally off March 17 was 33 days; the selloff was 27 days. It has a nice "W"-Bottom look to it, another name for a Double Bottom.

If the Double Bottom doesn't hold, particularly if it's a Gap Down opening below that support, as was the case with BAC on June 4, I'd sell if I were long (I'm not at the moment). BAC currently is trying to rally back to broken support at the gap, and then has resistance at the bottom of the broken Symmetrical Triangle and the 50DMA (dotted green line), roughly 35-75 - 36.08. Meanwhile on the downside, 23.62 still is IN PLAY, a measured move off the Symmetrical Triangle breakdown.

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