Friday, September 18, 2009

ARNA And PCLN


From September 11, on ARNA:

"The 5.64 and 5.61 highs set up a flat top for a morph into an Ascending Triangle. If ARNA pulls back here, then breaks out above 5.64 - 5.61, that would look fine."

ARNA not only pulled back after the first two targets got MADE, it came within about four cents of validating the ascending line for a second time, and the Symmetrical Triangle (dotted black line), indeed, has morphed into an Ascending Triangle. At 4:01PM yesterday afternoon, there was this news item announcing that ARNA would have a conference call at 8:00AM this morning. There wasn't any indication that I saw regarding whether the news was good or bad, but the stock was flying in after-hours, above $6.00. At midnight, there was this release:

Arena Pharmaceuticals Reports Positive, Highly Significant BLOSSOM Trial Results for Weight Management; NDA Submission on Track for December
Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc
ARNA | 9/18/2009 12:00:00 AM

--- Lorcaserin Meets all Primary Endpoints and FDA Benchmark ---- 63% of Lorcaserin Patients Who Complied with the Protocol Lost at Least 5% of Their Weight ---- Lorcaserin Patients in the Top Quartile Achieved Average Weight Loss of 16% or 35 Pounds ---- Combined Phase 3 BLOOM and BLOSSOM Data Set Confirms Lorcaserin's Excellent Safety and Tolerability Profile and Rules Out Heart Valve Effect ---- Conference Call and Webcast Presentation Scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET on September 18, 2009 -

SAN DIEGO, Sept 18, 2009 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ -- Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: ARNA) reported today positive, highly significant top-line results from the BLOSSOM (Behavioral modification and LOrcaserin Second Study for Obesity Management) trial. BLOSSOM confirms the results previously reported for the BLOOM (Behavioral modification and Lorcaserin for Overweight and Obesity Management) trial and completes the lorcaserin Phase 3 pivotal registration program of 7,190 patients evaluated for up to two years. Arena plans to submit a New Drug Application, or NDA, for lorcaserin to the US Food and Drug Administration, or FDA, in December."

Possible Breakaway Gap in ARNA at the open.

Okay, okay, Kevin, I owe you a couple, so I downloaded the chart and did the analysis. LOL.

PCLN has been in a powerful Bull Market since its October, 2008 low, up about 275%. Of note, there were a number of bullish breakouts prior to the 50/200 Bullish Cross, and we have another example here of a H&S Top that got taken out to the upside, so the points for the measured move get added to the high of the head.

Your Bear Wolfe Wave possibility looks very decent. The volume is markedly low in this move higher, so that's suspicious. Yesterday's close was just eleven cents above the pattern. Add 0.462 per day to 165.89, which is where the trendline came in yesterday. Good luck if you play it!

7 comments:

Melf Elf said...

Good Morning, Mark,

Thanks for your comment yesterday ;)
------------

Good Morning, Kevin,

Yes, if yesterday's high happens to be THE top, I certainly would consider that close enough to the 1085.24 target from the breakout in the 870's. We had about 210 points of upside IN PLAY and we got 200 of them. Very decent, especially considering the fact that the overwhelming majority of participants never thought that we would get anywhere near this level.

mark said...

Good Morning,
Concerning the PCLN pattern, isn't $.11 on a $165 share price pretty insignificant esp. if you add the next day's trendline price change? If it isn't a Wolfe Wave pattern, then how would you characterize the pattern?

Melf Elf said...

Good Morning, Mark,

Yes, eleven cents is insignificant in a stock in this price range. It did hold the breakout at the close, but you have a good point about the fact that the trendline moves higher today. It will open below the trendline unless it gaps up a little.

If it isn't a Bearish Wolfe Wave and the stock continues higher, I would characterize it as a simple Bear Flag that broke out to the upside. Bear Flags are not always bearish, particularly in a Bull Market.

Jordi said...

Good morning,

It might have been asked before, but is SPX tracing a potential Bear Wolfe wave ?

Thanks,

Jordi

- said...

Melf,

thanks again for all you wisdom...
can i ask what software you are using when doing chart analysis (you might have mentioned it before)

i'm just doing charts in interactive brokers, and have to eye them, not the exact science you're doing...

Melf Elf said...

Good Morning, Jordi,

Yes, I think I mentioned that the SPX had the look of a Bearish Wolfe Wave, but the symmetry between Waves #1-2 and Waves #3-4 seems a bit lacking. Still possible, though. It's very similar to Kevin's possible Bearish Wolfe Wave in PCLN that we looked at this morning. We would want to see the SPX close below the top trendline, which comes in today at 1065.73, and then back inside the pattern.
----
Good Morning, Kevin,

I use Metastock and download my data through Reuters.

Fff said...

Het. My 2 cents.
Indicador until now at yellow alert very close red line. If we compare with other movements can still expect a test red line so mybe top medium ou long term between 1105 ( Major Trend) or 1120 (retracement 50%).After that I expect a drop until the MM50 eventually
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/09/spx.html