Wednesday, January 19, 2011

AMZN Targets



(Click on Charts to Enlarge, then click the back arrow to get back to the narrative. You can toggle back and forth).

From yesterday morning's post:

"...the stock gained some steam at the end of the week and rallied Thursday and Friday, almost getting to the 189.39 target (from the pattern in blue). That's still IN PLAY, and 190.32 also is IN PLAY from the breakout of the pattern in purple."

Update:

Both the 189.39 and 190.32 targets got MADE early in yesterday's trading. The high around 10:30 AM was 190.40, just above the second target.



From the 190.40 high, AMZN formed a Falling Channel/Bullish Falling Wedge, which "morphed" (changed) into a Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern (picture an upside down bust of a person). The neckline was a very flat 190.13 and 190.14. The low of the pattern was 189.43. Subtract that low from the neckline, and you get an upside target of 190.83 IN PLAY. I bought AMZN at 189.90 and sold it at 190.78 in front of the 190.83 target that got MADE. The session high of 191.00 at that point was just above the target (White #1 in the next chart).



Basis this 5-Minute chart, by mid-afternoon, AMZN had formed this nice Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in white), which dwarfed the Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, by comparison (the pattern in yellow). The breakout put a measured move target of roughly 191.50 IN PLAY (hard to measure exactly on these intraday charts). I bought AMZN again at 190.22 and sold it at 191.44, just ahead of the 191.50 target, which got MADE. The session high was 191.60. The close was 191.25.




Gain on the two trades: $2,000.

My "stop loss" if the patterns had failed was the low of the Right Shoulder in the 1-Minute chart, and the low at White #4 in the 5-Minute chart of the Symmetrical Triangle. If a trade goes wrong, whether it be a day trade or a position trade, admit it as quickly as possible, take the small hit and move on to the next trade. We never want to allow a losing trade to turn into a disaster, which I did so-o many times in the past. UGH!

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