Wednesday, May 7, 2008

AAPL: "The Scream"




(Click On Chart To Enlarge)

1. After the breakdown of The Bearish Wolfe Wave in the $190's, AAPL experienced a serious smackdown in the general market panic selling during the winter. It's best to stay out of those as far as buying is concerned, and give stocks a chance to bottom. We can see that AAPL put in TWO patterns during February and early March, a Bullish Wedge and a Symmetrical Triangle, then went on an upside screamer after breaking out of them.

2. Be careful about using Bullish and Bearish Crosses of moving averages to time entries and exits. The most widely used are the 50DMA (dotted green line) and the 200DMA (dotted red line). They made a Bearish Cross on March 6, with AAPL at 120.93 near Data Point #4 of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in blue) that was BULLISH. Anyone who used that Bearish Cross as an exit signal ended up capitulating near the bottom. UGH.

3. Analysts' comments, particularly downgrades, can be a tad annoying, if not a downright terror on one's nerves if a stock that we own gets whacked as a result. Try to be objective. If the stock hasn't done anything wrong, ignore the downgrade, and it might even be a good buying opportunity, as AAPL was at the 20DMA (dotted black line), the day after "The Scream" from Cramer, the afternoon of April 11.

The subject of this post is a send-up of the Norwegian artist, Edvard Munch's, painting, "The Scream," depicting a rather tormented-looking soul who doesn't look entirely dissimilar to Cramer when he goes on one of his vein-popping rants. LOL. (see comment at the top of the chart). Cramer is a brilliant man, and has great entertainment value, but he also is a reminder to me not to try to predict anything, but rather, try to FOLLOW the market, as best I can.

No offense to Cramer intended. In fact, I plain like the guy, and I also know that I am worse than anyone at predicting anything.

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