Thursday, May 8, 2008

UYG: Wolfe Wave; CHL: Breakdown





(Click On Charts To Enlarge)

After the gap down break of the Bearish Wolfe Wave at the open on May 5, they took it all the way back to the top of the Wolfe Wave, fueled by a 17% short squeeze in Fannie (FNM), but UYG failed there. The Wolfe Wave got broken again yesterday and the target just might get MADE after all. It looks to be at about the 32.20s-32.30s, and there are TWO trendlines in the daily chart right in that area, at 32.23 and 32.26. (See Charts #2 and #3 above).

Chart #4: CHL closed on May 6 at 88.33, looking like it wanted to break out the Symmetrical Triangle (purple) to the upside for a bullish continuation, but it was called lower at the open yesterday, and opened at 85.87, BELOW the pattern, and BELOW Data Point #4 (purple) of the pattern, which was 86.06.

That kind of pattern breakdown/GAP DOWN opening usually isn't good. It gives a very strong suggestion that "this is just for openers," and that the stock is going down. CHL rallied only to 86.20, for a gap fill the prior day's low of 86.21 (another EXACT gap fill for this stock, like the 83.67 EXACT gap fill on April 22), then it faded, giving another VERY strong suggestion that the Symmetrical Triangle breakdown was for real.

Those using the "last low" of 83.68, prior to the run-up to 90.02, as their stop got taken out. 81.76 is IN PLAY. The 50/200DMAs currently are in the $78s.

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