Friday, November 21, 2008

VPHM: H&S Top




(Click On Chart To Enlarge)

From yesterday morning;

"It's not uncommon for Bearish Rising Wedges to "morph" (change) into a H&S Top. If that's the case here, it would be the second pattern in purple."

It appears that's what we got. VPHM gapped down at the open from 11.23 to 11.15, printed a high of 11.20, then immediately broke the trendline/neckline, at 10.88. That puts targets of 8.47 (the bottom of the two Bearish Wedges) and 8.10 (measured move off the H&S Top breakdown) IN PLAY unless/until we see something different, like VPHM closing back above the neckline. That would put the targets ON HOLD until we see what develops.

To derive the measured move target for the broken H&S Top, take the distance between where the neckline was when the 13.10 high of the Head was put in (it was at 10.32), then subtract that from the point of the breakdown (which was crossing below 10.883 yesterday).

13.10 - 10.32 = 2.78 points of downside.
10.88 - 2.78 = Target: 8.10 IN PLAY.

On a rally, resistance is:

10.88 - The 200 Day Moving Average
10.93 - The broken neckline (rises 0.0477 each session)
11.20-11.23 - The gap from yesterday morning
11.60-11.63 - The broken bottom of the Descending Triangle that gave us the 10.84 target that got MADE yesterday.

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