Wednesday, April 29, 2009

AAPL - Ascending Triangle



In yesterday's Comment Section, Jegejig asked:

"Would two data points be enough for the uptrend line with a flat top to form the ascending triangle?

For some reason, I thought there were supposed to be 3."

Yes, with ANY pattern, only two data points for the highs and for the lows is enough for a pattern formation. A third "hit" to any trendline is called a trendline validation, telling us, "Yes, that IS support (or resistance)."

In AAPL, the Bullish Falling Wedge (pattern in blue) "morphed" (changed) into the Ascending Triangle (in black). That kind of "morphing" is fairly common in charts, and we've looked at a lot of examples over the past few months.

In this particular Ascending Triangle (pattern in black), there are only two data points for the ascending line, and we can see that it worked out fine. In fact, the rally after Data Point #4 was established has been nearly parabolic. Notice that one a the few little pullbacks to speak of was on March 30 (green arrow), and interestingly, that pullback was a trendline validation, telling us, "Yes, the breakout IS valid. The top of the Ascending Triangle used to be resistance. It now IS support."

Off that trendline validation, AAPL rocketed higher toward its Ascending Triangle target.

EDIT (5:44AM): I just went back and read my analysis on AAPL from March 24, (the day that it broke out of this Ascending Triangle) part of which was, "Daily chart is looking real decent. AAPL has "turned the corner" higher, above the 103 Triple Top, and sits at a multi-month high."

We all have a lot of charts to follow, but a REALLY nice play would have been to put in a buy order near the $103 breakout, to try to pick it up on any pullback. The order would have gotten filled several sessions later, on the March 30 pullback (green arrow) to 102.61.

Coulda...shoulda...woulda...LOL.

4 comments:

mark said...

I hadn't followed AAPL but with your original analysis what kept you from that play? Could it be as simple as you had other trades on and were concentrating on them?

Melf Elf said...

Good Morning, Mark,

It's that simple ;)

Jegejig said...

Thanks Melf.

I tried to apply what I learned from you on SKF yesterday.

There looked to be a broadening (that was forming by connecting 2 data points 2 higher swing highs and 2 data points for the lower trendline).

One of my entries yesterday was on the possible validation of the trendline (data point #3).

The trading plan was:

1)If the trendline holds, it will be a nice ride (possibly) to the left trendline).

2)If the trendline breaks - hope for a test of the broken trend line or exit before it.

I'm currently on plan #2, lol.

Melf Elf said...

Okay, Jeg. That's good that you have a trading plan.