Thursday, July 30, 2009

AZO: Double Falling Wedges


From my July 23 trade in AZO:

"In the final half hour of trading AZO was barely in the green, looking like it was going to sell off, so I threw it in and was glad that I did. AZO closed slightly in the red. Now, watch it rally to $160 today ;)"

AZO has traded sideways-to-down since then, down a little over $4 from where I threw it in. This chart is another example of why I say that wedges aren't my favorite patterns. AZO broke out on July 9 at 155.06, but we can see that as soon as a wedge breaks out (or breaks down), everything immediately to the left is resistance (or, support in the case of Goldman, when it broke down below a Rising Wedge). Not so swell. AZO is down about $2 from that breakout.

Interestingly, though, while AZO has been trading sideways-to-down since the July 9 breakout, it has been forming another possible Falling Wedge (in blue) and currently is looking for Data Point #4, which "could have been" yesterday's low. We'll see. AZO needs to find support here, then go up and knock out the top of the Blue Wedge, which comes in today at 156.029.

Yesterday, we looked at the "possible" Bearish Wolfe Wave in AMZN. We can see in this chart that AZO also had a "possible" Bearish Wolfe Wave late winter of this year. Nice symmetry between Waves #1-#2 and Waves #3-4. Nice Wave #5 Fakeout Breakout on February 23-24. Unfortunately for The Bears, the Bearish Wolfe Wave possibility got blown on March 3 when it got trumped by earnings. When you run into a TA purist who says, "Fundamentals don't matter at all," show them this chart ;)

Notice that at Blue #3 of the large Falling Wedge on June 9, AZO found resistance at the Kumo (Cloud), right where it had narrowed and transitioned to red vertical stripes. I don't understand the math to explain what causes the Kumo (Cloud) to do that, but it's interesting how the door got slammed on any upward price movement right there!

At Purple #1 of the current Falling Wedge, AZO again found resistance at the top of The Kumo (Cloud). Granted, AZO looks like it's rolling over to the downside, but again, we'll see. I'm not going to assume that, given that the larger Falling Wedge breakout still is looking alright, and given that a possible second Falling Wedge is forming. This simply could be a consolidation of the 100% gain that AZO had off its November low, and could be a DOUBLE Bullish Continuation pattern (Back-to-back Falling Wedges).

It does look like AZO needs to GIT GOIN' to the upside, though!

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