Saturday, July 25, 2009

BIDU: This Is NOT a Bull Market!



Late February, 2009 ...
Mr. Perma Bear: "I hope that you're shorting the crap outta this stupid market!"

Mr. Trend Follower: "Actually, I just bought the Ascending Triangle breakout in BIDU."

Mr. PB: "You're joking. This is a Bear Market, you IDIOT."

Mr. TF: "Well, not according to this chart. BIDU not only broke out to the upside, it looks like it just transitioned into a Bull Market."

Mr. PB: "Fool! Just wait. The market is going to crash and burn, sucker!"

Early March, 2009 ...

Mr. PB: "See, wud I tell ya! The SPX just broke below its November low. Are you still long BIDU, that piece of crap?"

Mr. TF: "Yep. I'm down a little on it, but it's holding up very well with the market at new lows. I'm going to stay long."

Mr. PB: "IDIOT! You're going to get killed, and I hope that you do. I'm short BIDU, and I'm staying short until it crashes and burns!"

Late May, 2009 ...

Mr. TF: "Gee, I hope that you're not still shorting BIDU. It's had a terrific run, and it just broke out of a third pattern, a Symmetrical Triangle."

Mr. PB: "You're a complete MORON. Yes, I'm still shorting BIDU and I've added to my shorts all the way up. I can afford it. This is only a bear market rally!"

Mr. TF: "Oh, okay. Good luck!"

Late, July, 2009 ...

Mr. TF: "Hey, how are you doing? I just sold my BIDU at the $347 Symmetrical Triangle target and made a nice chunk of change. I hope you're doing okay."

Mr. PB: "I'm still shorting it. I have all the time in the world for this piece of junk to crash. I told you, this is a BEAR market!"

Mr. TF: "It is? Gee, I guess I'll call my broker and give the money back. I don't feel right taking the money if it was only a bear market rally."

Today is my birthday, so you will forgive me having a spot of fun with that little spoof, but we sure can fight Ms. Market, can't we? I swear that I've been reading things akin to that dialogue for months while we've been looking at many, many charts that have had rallies similar to that of BIDU, and some with gains even better than this one.

As crazy as it sounds, despite the huge gain that BIDU already has had, and despite the fact that we were on Day #13 of the rally in the NASDAQ, I still tried to buy BIDU on Friday's gap up opening on very good earnings since 347.01 still was IN PLAY.

I put my order in at 336.10 just before the open, near the BID...ASK indication. My order turned out to be just above the 335.87 50% retracement of the gap, which is where I wanted it and which often gets hit, but I didn't get filled this time. Curses! The low was 338.08, then BIDU went on a screamer, so I cancelled the order when it was gone on the upside. The Symmetrical Triangle target of 347.01 got MADE (where I would have sold) on the way to a high of 363.30. What a steady rally BIDU has had, with several nice consolidation/bullish continuation patterns along the way!

Since it's also on the order entry sheet, I made some on my initial play of ESI, but also gave some back on my re-entry. Gain: $250.

5 comments:

Jegejig said...

Melf help!!!

Not sure if SPX has a wolfewave or just a 1 and 4 pattern.

It looks like a back to back 1 and 4 pattern.

http://jegejigs.blogspot.com/

Melf Elf said...

Good Morning, Jegejig,

Your Bearish Wolfe Wave was a possibility up until your Conservative Wave 4 low of 888.86 on June 23 got taken out to the downside, and then your Wave 1 low of 879.61 on May 21 got taken out to the downside, as well. That was a "no no" because it invalidated any possiblity of a Wolfe Wave when your second Wave 4 low (thinner black line) went below your Wave 1 low.

Remember that after the Lead-In to a Bearish Wolfe Wave, where we mark Wave 1 on the chart, the successive waves must make "higher highs" and "higher lows" right through to the Wave 5 Breakout/Fakeout.

That's of key importance because it puts everyone wrong-footed, thinking, "Gee, this is VERY bullish because of the higher highs and the higher lows," but in reality, it isn't bullish at all. That's the beauty of a Wolfe Wave, faking everyone out at the Wave 5 breakout (or breakdown, in a Bullish Wolfe Wave). Ms. Market then does her thing, and disappoints the greatest number of people possible.

Interestingly, by the way, that failed H&S Top and subsequent finding of support at the neckline of the 4½ month Bullish Inverse H&S had the same net effect of a Wolfe Wave. Most market participants were caught wrong-footed at the July 8 low of 869, expected the low 800's in the SPX, but we went on a 110 point upside screamer instead.

VERY similar market behavior to what we see coming off a good Wolfe Wave 5 Fakeout/Breakout, isn't it? A huge move in the opposite direction.

Jegejig said...

Melf,

Thank you as always.

After doing my homework, I posted new speculations for the SPX on my blog.

Thanks again. :)

Melf Elf said...

Jegejig,

You're very welcome. My take on the SPX is in my July 16 post, with two charts: the failed H&S Top, and then the Falling Channel breakout chart, below that.

- said...

Melf,

hate to through out stocks that you haven't posted on, but for an examble of a potential wolfe wave:
I think AMZN is right there on the daily chart starting in april...

it rallied hard prior to earnings last week breaking out only to disappoint, dropping like a rock towards the lower trendline...
i have the lower trendline at 76, so if it breaks, look out below...