(Click on charts to enlarge, then click on them again for further enlargement. Use back arrow to return to narrative)
After the H&S Top target of 54.50 got MADE at today's open, I bought FCX when it sold off to 53.44 - 53.45, which was the neckline of the Hourly H&S Top two weeks ago. As we can see from the chart, FCX put in a Double Bottom in that area, but then also put in a Double Top. When it started coming back in my face off the Double Top, I threw it in for a gain of $200, and repurchased the shares on the selloff to the neckline of the Inverse H&S neckline basis the daily chart, currently at 53.035.
FCX put in a low at 53.02, put in the Ascending Triangle (pattern in red), then broke out of it, putting a target of 54.28 IN PLAY.
FCX rallied to 54.06, then traded sideways to down for the remainder of the session, also trading above and below the Ascending Triangle breakout. My "thinking" was that if FCX broke below White Data Point #2, at 53.53, it "probably" only was doing that to establish White Data Point #4 of a Falling Wedge, or a Falling Channel. Never mind about what I "thought," because that often gets me into trouble. 53.53 got broken, and FCX was trading sloppily, below the 53.65...53.66...53.67 highs of the Ascending Triangle, and I had a nice gain to protect. I gave it a lot of leeway, holding during the selloff from the 54.06 high, but I didn't intend to give it all back, so I sold for 53.52 on the break of 53.53 support for a gain of #1,200.
BECAUSE I sold (LOL), FCX did go down and establish White Data Point #4, rallied off there, and now is champing* at the bit for a technical breakout of the Falling Channel that would be a target of 54.32 IN PLAY, very near the Ascending Triangle target of 54.28 that still in IN PLAY since FCX closed above the highs of the pattern. Curses!
Math for the Falling Channel, if it breaks out:
54.06 - high
53.44 - low
54.06 - 53.44 = 0.62 points of upside added to a breakout (roughly 53.70)
53.70 + 0..62 = Target: 54.32 on a breakout
Gain on the session: $1,400 (not too bad since FCX was down $1.74)
Gain on the 19 trades since March 23: $14,750
The data aren't ready for today's session, but we can visualize how FCX banged off the neckline at today's session low of 53.02.
*I always thought that it was CHOMPING at the bit, but it isn't. It's CHAMPING.
2 comments:
Wow . .Melf. You are doing great trading these patterns. I was so amazed when you said the other day that once the trade starts you no longer look at TA. I think you are very talented fellow. Sure glad to have access to your thoughts.
Best wishes
Mary
Thanks, Mary,
Just to be clear, I don't look at any technical indicators on the intraday charts at all.
On the daily charts, I only look at my Fibonacci Sequential Measures of Relative Strength (those are the colored 21's, 34's,55's, 89's, 144's that you'll often see on my charts), MACD and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo charts.
After many, many years of working with myriad technical indicators, I came to the conclusion that they not only didn't help me with trading decisions, they made the decision-making process much more difficult than it needed to be.
"Less is more," as it were ;)
Post a Comment