FCX: Ascending Triangle And Bear Trap Set

This is a drawing of a Symmetrical Triangle in the recent trading in FCX, starting with a high at White #1, at 49.50. What I didn't like about this pattern interpretation is the fact that Tuesday's high of 49.19 (white arrow) is a false breakout.



If we begin to label the chart with White #1 at the 46.06 low (I forgot to label the chart), we have a flat top for an Ascending Triangle, with the highs of 49.17 and 49.19. After yesterday morning's breakout to 49.71, those 49.17 and 49.19 highs got successfully retested early in yesterday's session (white arrow), with reaction lows of 49.20 and 49.21, both of which were validations of support. We know how important that can be when we get validations, speaking of which...



The quintuple validation of resistance (five red arrows) finally got taken out yesterday. After the gap up opening, FCX put in a low of 49.00, pennies below blue Trendline #2-#4, validating it as support, then rallied smartly. The Ascending Triangle breakout puts an upside target of 52.28 IN PLAY.

CAUTION: Targets that are against the dominant trend are less likely to get MADE. Witness: The pre-fifty cent dividend Ascending Triangle that morphed into a Bearish Rising Wedge that terminated at 52.30, just below the bottom of the Kumo, on May 10. The Ascending Triangle/dividend payout on May 11 ended up being a $3.50 Smackdown in FCX, below Trendline #2-#4.

Math For The Ascending Triangle:

49.17 - (The more conservative of the 49.17 and 49.19 highs)
46.06 - (Low of the pattern)

49.17 - 46.06 = 3.11 points of upside, added to 49.17.
49.17 + 3.11 = Target: 52.28 IN PLAY.

Anecdotally, it's interesting that the 52.28 target is so close to where the Bearish Rising Wedge terminated on May 10: 52.30.

Also in proximity are the 51.29 low of the May 10 candle, prior to the gap down, and the 51.275 Kijun-sen in this Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart. Given yesterday's bullish Ascending Triangle breakout, it seems reasonable to expect FCX to get to 51.275 - 51.29, at a minimum. That price area is about 68% of the 52.28 target that is IN PLAY. Rather pitiful if The Bulls can't at least do tha-a-at. LOL.

Optimistically, if The Bulls eventually can go up and knock out Blue Trendline #1-#3, all of the trading below Trendline #2-#4 is a fairly sizeable Bear Trap. The trap is set with FCX trading back inside the big blue Falling Wedge, but the trap isn't sprung unless FCX breaks out of it to the upside, ala The St. Paddy's Day Falling Wedge breakout.