Tuesday, July 26, 2011

FCX: Bid A Small Slam In Spades




Looks like we've got a real Bull vs. Bear struggle in FCX! At yesterday's close, it's Advantage: The Bears, for CLOSING the stock back below the 2011 Falling Wedge.

Ultimately, it really doesn't matter if FCX closes slightly above, or slightly below, the top trendline of the 2011 Falling Wedge. The trendline is declining, so theorectically, weeks in the future, we could be looking at closes above the trendline, but with lower prices as the stock "walks down the trendline." What's really important is for The Bulls, at some point, to make a "higher high" than the 56.68 release of earnings high. That doesn't have to be today or tomorrow.



We haven't looked at the Fibonacci Sequential Measures of Relative Strength in awhile, the 8...13...21...34...55...89...144. The "Buy Signal" coming out of Bullish Synchronicity in late June was a very nice signal, and it coincided with the "Triple Breakout Through Triple Validated Resistance" in FCX. Remember that indicators don't TELL US to buy, or to sell. Indicators don't have a clue what the price chart looks like. They just do what they do best: they "indicate."

Coming out of Bullish Synchronicity in late June, these RSIs we're indicating, "We're good to go on the upside if the price chart has got anything." The price chart was two sessions away from the "Triple Breakout Through Triple Validated Resistance" and was needing a print of 49.66 for the "Buy Signal" from this indicator to "kick in."

View indicators simply as "giving us information." They aren't TELLING US what to do. If we've ever played the card game of bridge, if our partner opens with a bid of One Spade, our partner is not TELLING US to bid game, or even to make a bid at all if we're holding junk. Our partner is giving us this information about his or her hand: Partner has 4 or 5 spades, and at least 13 high card points. Now it's up to us to look at our cards (as we would look at a chart, based on information from a technical indicator), then decide what we want to do about our partner's bid of One Spade. Partner doesn't know what cards we've got when he or she indicates his or her hand to us, just as this RSI chart didn't know what "cards" the FCX price chart was holding.

No analogy ever is entirely apt, but in this particular example of these RSIs vis-a-vis the price chart in late June, the FCX price chart was holding a blockbuster "hand" of cards (the three "nested" patterns).

Make at least a Small Slam bid of SIX spades. LOL.



In the current time-frame, the 34 and 55 RSIs are in gear on the upside, so we're skipping down to the last RSIs in the sequence, the 89...144...233. Comments are on the chart.

8 comments:

Mary said...

LOVE IT :-) Thanks for great charts and comments.

Mary

jim said...

intersting synchronicity indicator Melf. Hope we have a "Sting" to the upside. jc)

Mary said...

Hi Melf . .I tried the formula on the SLW chart. Was wondering if you would "bless it". Thank you.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLW&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p29414171602&a=240310540

Mary

Melf Elf said...

Mary and Jim,

I've enjoyed playing with those RSIs over the years. They can give some good signals.

There wasn't anything on your chart, Mary, other than the BBands and the 5 and 10MAs. Were you working on patterns and targets?

Mary said...

Hi Melf . .well . .I posted the wrong thing I was so excited :-) Here is the chart with the comment.

Mary

http://i.picoodle.com/2ceigp68

Melf Elf said...

Mary,

You don't want to round it off to eleven cents, or over time, it could throw your calculation off at bit.

The slope, according to the number of days that you gave me, is 0.11149, so I'd suggest using 0.1115.

You then want to try to determine whether or not Ms. Market thinks that particular trendline is significant, or not, by validating it. The fact that, right after you established Data Point #2, the stock went above the trendline, then right back below it, makes the trendline suspect in terms of being useful.

Good job on the calculation!

Mary said...

Okay! Thank you for sharing that . .point taken. I can see how that would be important. I understand :-)

Mary

jim said...

"What's really important is for The Bulls, at some point, to make a "higher high" than the 56.68 release of earnings high. That doesn't have to be today or tomorrow."
Related to this would price need to close above 56.68 ? Thanks jc