Tuesday, September 20, 2011

GDX And GG



From rhe weekend, on the GDX:

"The bottom of The Channel comes in on Monday, September 19, at 64.05. Friday's close was 64.11, so the GDX is "right there."

The GDX opened yesterday's session "right there," at 64.07, then ran further into The Channel, to 64.76, a penny above the September 13 high of 64.75.

That early move higher gave The Bears a bit more of "Ye Olde Knuckle-biter" with the GDX continuing its rally back inside The Channel and with it also taking out that high, but that nominal takeout of the 64.75 high by just a penny was a Bull Trap. The rally was over right there, at 9:42AM. The GDX sold off and closed back below The Channel.

Key Resistance levels in the GDX now are (1) the bottom of The Channel, which comes in today, September 20, at 64.395, and (2) 64.76 - 64.75, the September 13 and 19 highs, respectively. An upside takeout of both likely would give The Bears another chew at their knuckles ;)



I was more interested yesterday in shorting GG. It had fallen below its rising Channel and, unlike the GDX, hadn't regained it in Friday's session. The bottom of it came in yesterday at 52.239. Since it was rallying with the GDX in the early going, I decided to put in an order to short 5,000 shares of it at 52.38, just below 52.425 horizontal resistance in the Hourly chart.



I caught the session high of 52.40, within two cents.



GG put in a little Double Top and sold off quickly to the EMAs in the 1-Minute chart, so I covered the short and planned to re-short it on the next rally since it had managed to get above resistance at the 52.239 bottom of The Channel in the daily chart on the early rally.



I didn't get the rally. GG initially sold off and found support (yellow arrow) at the top of Friday's late session triangle (in white). I was wanting to short a gap-filling rally (horizontal red line), but it was no good. The Bulls didn't have it in them, and after a brief rally, GG broke below the bottom of Friday's late session triangle.



After that breakdown, The Bulls staged a failed Bearish Rising Wedge (in yellow) reflex rally back to the bearishly inverted EMAs, then they formed and broke below a Bear Flag (in orange). At the gong, The Bulls were trying to break out of an Ascending Triangle (in blue), the highs of which are 50.90 and 50.89, respectively.



The bottom of the broken Channel in GG comes in today, September 20, at 52.478.



Gain: $1,500

2 comments:

Jim said...

Thanks Melf,
Wonderful analysis as always.
I think the GDX is beginning to strengthen in the face of weaker metals. (Perhaps the "short miner" trade is being unwound?)
Best Regards,
Jim

Melf Elf said...

Hi, Jim,

I don't know, but that Inverse H&S breakout in the GDX (Hourly chart) this morning, above the 64.75 - 64.76 neckline, was powerful! We'll look at it in the morning ;)