VPHM - Hanging On By A Thread

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From the VPHM Yahoo Message Board - October 18, 2007 3:16PM

"....We've got a little resistance here at 9.79-9.80.

If we can get through there, a print tomorrow of 9.89 would be a technical breakout. I took profits on 25% of my position at 9.77 this afternoon, just in case we don't get the breakout. Looks good at this point, though."

I sold the remaining 75% of my VPHM for a little better than break even going into the close on Friday and was glad that I made the "safety play" of selling 25% of the position at resistance on Thursday. Disappointing, but trades don't always work out as well as we would like.

The TWICE VALIDATED bottom rail of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern came in on Friday at 9.07, so it wasn't violated by Friday's 9.09 low. The upward slope of the trendline is 0.03125 per day, so we "move the chains," so to speak, and that trendline will come in on Monday, October 22, at 9.10375. Friday's close was 9.10, so if VPHM opens UNCH, it will be sitting smack on that trendline.

Anything below 9.10 will be a technical violation of a TWICE VALIDATED trendline, which "should" have some significance on the downside if it's anything more than a penny or three in the early going, followed by an upside reversal.

Normally, I try to stay with a trade until I'm stopped out, and I wasn't stopped out on this one, but given the strength of Friday's smackdown in the general market, the fact that VPHM is in Crash Recovery, and the fact that this isn't a particularly strong pattern, I decided that "discretion is the better part of valor," and cashed it in for a very small winning trade (1.8%).